Thread by @sugan2503

PROVINCIAL UPDATE 20 JUNE

• Changes from yesterday highlighted
• No hospital update given today

Since, according to the official numbers, GP now has more active cases than WC... today I'm going discuss why maybe that's not actually the case.

#Covid19SA #COVID19inSA

I know there's going to be a lot of talk about GP now having more active cases than WC, but in theory, I don't feel it's true.
Since WC changed it's testing strategy, the dip in the 7 day average was very noticeable - and not consistent with I expected from the curve.

I created a projection of where the average might be if not for the change.
This is what I considered:
• Change in strategy only applied to public facilities
• More testing was done in private
• Cases under 55 make up about 70% of cases
• Some under 55 will still be tested

With these considerations I decided that cases were about 30% lower than what it should be since the change. So from 6 June I assumed the new cases amount was 70% of the true amount and worked out what the true amount would have been & plotted a new graph against the current one

So looking at the new graph, the WC average is around 1953 (current is 1367).
And the amount of extra cases would have been over 9 000 so WC would be closer to 60k cases.
There would have been more recoveries obviously, but in my opinion, WC still has more active cases than GP.

These are just my views, you are free to disagree with me. I'm happy to hear your comments, thoughts, suggestions on this projection.
Either way, The WC curve has slowed... but I cannot say if a peak has been reached as yet.

Here's a look at WC hospital numbers - still on an upward trend.

And finally, a look at daily new deaths in WC

There's still a general upward trend with new deaths. The average is around 50 now
This is why just looking at cases in WC is not enough:
• Hospital numbers still going up
• New deaths still going up
• Excess deaths still going up