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1/. The #HerdImmunity strategy depends on people developing immunity to #COVID19.

But immunity to other human coronaviruses (e.g SARS & MERS) usually only lasts between 12 to 37 months.

Studies suggests that we may never develop immunity against Covid19. scmp.com/news/china/sci…
2/. Immunity is not standard for each person & it is not clear whether temporary immunity is the result of the virus mutating or because the body can’t defeat it long term.

Either way, it seems widely accepted that immunity to #COVID19 will be temporary.
3/. People don’t seem to understand antibodies do not equal immunity.

For our immune system, some microbes don’t leave a strong impression. (e.g. the coronaviruses that cause the cold).

Without immunity there’s no permanent vaccine & no herd immunity.
smithsonianmag.com/science-nature…
4/. Despite this, some countries are overtly or covertly attempting a #HerdImmunity strategy.

A new study shows only 6.1% of Sweden's population had developed coronavirus antibodies by late May.

The architect of the policy had hoped for 40% in Stockholm. businessinsider.com/coronavirus-ho…
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Stefan Simanowitz
@StefSimanowitz
1/. We know elderly people were sent to care homes from hospital without testing, but it is also happened with home care, on a massive scale.

“The same number of people work in home care as in care homes: 685,000 people nationally.” @drjanetownson, CEO, UK Homecare Association.
2/. Dr Townsend told MPs at the Select Committee today:

"Although it hasn’t been reported, people have been discharged from hospitals to home care without testing."

“Home care has been at the bottom of the priority list. People receiving home care were never even on the list.
3/. “Testing hasn’t been available & STILL isn’t available for home care.”

“PPE was diverted to the NHS. This is vehemently denied by govt but this was our experience on the ground”
@drjanetownson tells @commonshealth. #HomeCareScandal #COVID__19 #COVID
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Stefan Simanowitz
@StefSimanowitz
1/. Many of the govt's claims have fallen by the wayside

However, the central myth upon which the others hang, persists

This is the idea that the govt switched from their #HerdImmunity strategy.

Yes, they moved from mitigation to suppression, but the strategy remained the same
2/. The govt knew about the virus at the start of January. By February Hancock viewed it as “the single biggest issue that is about to come & hit us”.

"From about mid-January, it was absolutely obvious that this was very serious,” says SAGEs John Edmunds
3/. On 14 March, SAGE modeller, @neil_ferguson, told @Channel4News that “400,000 Briton’s could die from #COVID19” if no action was taken.

On 21 February, NERVTAG (a sub-group of SAGE), told govt advisors the death toll could be as high as 1.3 million.
Read 14 tweets
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Stefan Simanowitz
@StefSimanowitz
1/. The Dutch strategy for dealing with #coronavirus mirrors that being attempted by @BorisJohnson’s govt & is described as “a masterclass in framing & gaslighting.”

But in recent days, leaks & good journalism are exposing the Dutch #HerdImmunityScandal.
containmentnu.nl/en/articles/ga…
2/. On 16 March, PM Rutte gave a National Address.

He did not talk about suppressing #COVD19 as most countries were doing, but he did mention #HerdImmunity.

On 4 June, the PM said: “I did not make a speech about herd immunity. I have no knowledge of it.”
3/. Calculations that without suppression measures, 100,000 people could die, saw the govt shifting its description of #HerdImmunity from a “strategy” to an “outcome”.

Yet spokespeople still talked about “allowing #COVID19 to spread through the populace”.
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