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One big puzzle currently in COVID projections is why some states have much higher 'hospitalization rates' than others.

Brief THREAD on Texas, versus the rest...
It is no surprise that hospitalization rates (those in hospital relative to active recorded cases) are coming down fast in states with aggressive testing and a moderating outbreak, such as NY:
But the hospitalization rate is also coming down in states like Florida, which has seen positivity ratios go up (higher hit ratios when testing, signalling an unrecorded outbreak)
The exception is Texas, which has seen a spike in recorded cases over the past 2-3 weeks, and also a spike in hospitalizations. The hospitalization rate is stuck around 8%, which is very high compared to almost all other states, and the reason why hospital pressure is in the news
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Exante Data
@ExanteData
All US states are at least partially open. Investor focus is on risk of 2nd wave #COVID19 in states seeing rising case growth & increasing hospital pressure. CDC data through June 9 confirms recent growth of #COVID19 hospitalization trends in #Arizona & #Texas
#Texas
And in #NorthCarolina
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Exante Data
@ExanteData
Lot of good discussion from @Brad_Setser @PMehrling @michaelxpettis @adam_tooze on a recent @TheEconomist article on the rise of the $rmb as a reserve currency. At Exante we track this closely. We have seen modest CB purchases of RMB driven mostly by the SNB in early 2020... 1/5
...but COFER data, which is a much broader sample than the reserve managers tracked above, shows net RMB sales by reserve managers in Q4. The first quarter of sales since joining the SDR... 2/5
...overall the RMB share of global reserves has been flat since about mid-2018 at 2.6% (excluding Chinese reserves from the global total)... 3/5
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Exante Data
@ExanteData
We have been tracking the coronavirus/COVID19 outbreak VERY closely since it started in #China in January, and we have learnt a fair bit about what data to use and not use in the process = A THREAD.

A key point: There is no single source of data that is the best. The data is collected in a decentralized way. Hence, you have to think about which data is best for each jurisdiction (though it is nearly impossible to track them all individually).
Initially, the focus was on #China, and we relied on the official press release from the CDC in China and key individual provinces for the analysis of new cases and deaths and details about how the statistics were changing (diagnostic criteria etc).

nhc.gov.cn/yjb/s3578/2020…
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