1/ I am massively bullish on #Bitcoin, but I think the next big move is likely down.
@glassnode just reported the largest $BTC transfer from miners to exchanges in over a year.
@glassnode just reported the largest $BTC transfer from miners to exchanges in over a year.
2/ And CME commitment of traders shows institutions are massively net short $BTC, and have been for many weeks.
They've only been this net short once before: the last time $BTC hovered around this same price.
They've only been this net short once before: the last time $BTC hovered around this same price.
3/ Bitfinex whale's buywall is eroding, and hasn't been replenished yet.
And those $BTC transfers from miners to exchanges...they went to Bitfinex.
(platform is @tradinglite)
And those $BTC transfers from miners to exchanges...they went to Bitfinex.
(platform is @tradinglite)
4/ More importantly, Bitfinex orderbook delta has been skewed massively to the sell side for almost six weeks.
The birds-eye-view of BFX's orderbook has been an accurate leading indicator of #Bitcoin's next move nearly every swing for the past nine months.
The birds-eye-view of BFX's orderbook has been an accurate leading indicator of #Bitcoin's next move nearly every swing for the past nine months.
5/ Technically we're still in bull market territory.
A break below the VWAP is a juicy buy the dip opportunity.
Could be the last $BTFD below $10k. Ever.
A break below the VWAP is a juicy buy the dip opportunity.
Could be the last $BTFD below $10k. Ever.
6/ If we break down, where am I a buyer?
It depends on how well global markets hold up.
$BTC’s correlation to the S&P is back at all time highs.
Chart h/t @caprioleio
It depends on how well global markets hold up.
$BTC’s correlation to the S&P is back at all time highs.
Chart h/t @caprioleio
7/ I’ll wait for bids to start stacking up on Bitfinex's orderbook.
I expect to see that happening before $BTC price even has a chance to locally bottom.
I expect to see that happening before $BTC price even has a chance to locally bottom.
8/ I suspect we'll see a drop to the $7800-$8200 area.
Outside chance it goes as low as the mid-$6k range.
I don't expect it to go lower.
Outside chance it goes as low as the mid-$6k range.
I don't expect it to go lower.
9/ This is *not* bad news, big picture. I expect a roaring bull market is right around the corner.
Grayscale is buying up $BTC faster than miners can mine.
And Fidelity reports record institutional interest in cryptoassets.
Report: bit.ly/3hVyVv3
Grayscale is buying up $BTC faster than miners can mine.
And Fidelity reports record institutional interest in cryptoassets.
Report: bit.ly/3hVyVv3
10/ Of course there's nothing bullish about that for censorship resistance.
But I do believe it's a natural step in the long arc of $BTC's adoption curve.
But I do believe it's a natural step in the long arc of $BTC's adoption curve.
11/ More good news: we're very close to a hash ribbons buy signal.
A hash ribbons buy is one of the highest-alpha on-chain signals I track.
They don't happen often -- and I expect this to be the last one for a long time.
A hash ribbons buy is one of the highest-alpha on-chain signals I track.
They don't happen often -- and I expect this to be the last one for a long time.
12/ If $BTC breaks down, I suspect alts crash.
As great as the pumps have been, $BTC dominance and the shitcoin index both look about ready to roll over.
Taking some profit isn’t a bad idea.
As great as the pumps have been, $BTC dominance and the shitcoin index both look about ready to roll over.
Taking some profit isn’t a bad idea.
13/ And if I'm wrong about all of this -- that couldn't make me happier.
My spot exposure has not changed. I will not sell.
I still think we see ATH's around the end of this year. 🚀
My spot exposure has not changed. I will not sell.
I still think we see ATH's around the end of this year. 🚀
