Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/6. The USA are experiencing a 2nd wave, at least of same amplitude as the 1st one.
5 States June 26 to July 02: #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for cases/deaths/reprod rates/tests.
Data coronavirus.jhu.edu
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE @SDSCdatascience
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

2/6. New York reported 749 new #COVID19 cases on June 25 with a growth rate 0.2%.
With 650->630 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State remains within the safety zone of its epidemic activity.
Reprod Rate (R-eff) 0.97
140,290 tests/1M pop; CFR=8%; 1,609 deaths/1M pop

3/6. Texas reported 6,426 new #COVID19 cases on June 25, growth rate 4.1%.
With 5,400->7,200 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State is not controlling its epidemic wave and should not lift any NPIs.
R-eff = 1.34
46,520 tests/1M pop; CFR=1.7%; 80 deaths/1M pop

4/6. Florida reported 5,004 new #COVID19 cases on June 25, growth rate 4.1%
With 4,800->6,600 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State is experiencing a second epidemic wave (much stronger than the first one)
R-eff = 1.33
60,888 tests/1M pop; CFR=2.9%; 155 deaths/1M pop

5/6. California reported 5,187 new #COVID19 cases on June 25, growth rate 2.6%.
With 5,100->6,000 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State is not controlling its epidemic activity and should not lift its NPIs.
R-eff=1.19
65,743 tests/1M pop; CFR=2.9%; 147 deaths/1M pop

6/6. Arizona reported 3,091 new #COVID19 cases on June 25, growth rate 4.6%.
With 2,700->2,400 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the State experiences high levels of its epidemic activity.
R-eff = 1.12
44,674 tests/1M pop; CFR=2.4%; 205 deaths/1M pop