(1) Understanding Reported #COVID19 Deaths in Texas:
The Texas Dept. of State Health Services reports Cumulative and Daily Deaths on its COVID-19 Status Dashboard
txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
The Texas Dept. of State Health Services reports Cumulative and Daily Deaths on its COVID-19 Status Dashboard
txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
(2) The values from the State Dashboard are in good agreement with those reported by the JHU CSSE on its Dashboard. The slight differences are likely due to different closing times for the day.
(3) Texas also reports COVID-19 Deaths to the CDC. These deaths are recorded on the day of the death, rather than the day the death was reported.
This count reveals that data is incomplete, not only in the CDC dataset, but on the dashboards. The dashboards also lag about 1w.
This count reveals that data is incomplete, not only in the CDC dataset, but on the dashboards. The dashboards also lag about 1w.
(4) The CDC records deaths by other causes, too. This cause had the least variance per month and clearly shows how the last three weeks of data are incomplete, and the four before that may be somewhat low.
(5) I've added a projection of what the CDC curve probably looks like today. I've also added shaded regions to show where the data is incomplete. The red region is very incomplete, while the yellow is slightly incomplete.
The latest nearly complete count is 2,000 on 6/5
The latest nearly complete count is 2,000 on 6/5
(6) So its June 27th, and the last nearly complete death count we have is for June 5th. However deaths lag exposures by an average of 21 days.
So the value on June 5th corresponds with behavior on the ground on May 15th, only two weeks into the reopening.
So the value on June 5th corresponds with behavior on the ground on May 15th, only two weeks into the reopening.
(7) I've added the estimated mean Exposure date on the top of the Texas Death chart below.
Again, the latest nearly complete count of 2,000 is for 6/5 and corresponds to exposures that occurred around 5/15.
Again, the latest nearly complete count of 2,000 is for 6/5 and corresponds to exposures that occurred around 5/15.
(8) In New York, the lag between Confirmed Cases and Deaths was roughly 7-8 days. New York expedited Daily Death counts outside of normal Death Certificate Processing.
The delays for Florida (28-35 days) and Texas (35-42 days) are much, much longer.
The delays for Florida (28-35 days) and Texas (35-42 days) are much, much longer.
(9) Florida and Texas have also underreported their deaths due to high rates of misattribution of the cause of death.
Excess Natural Deaths analysis shows both states have only reported about half of their actual COVID-19 related deaths and that's only through 6/5.
Excess Natural Deaths analysis shows both states have only reported about half of their actual COVID-19 related deaths and that's only through 6/5.
(10) Some "optimists" have been comparing the scary rise in the New Reported Cases to the noisy but flat trend in the New Reported Deaths, and claiming the Case Fatality Rate has dropped dramatically.
The truth is, the data is lagged so badly that we just don't know.
The truth is, the data is lagged so badly that we just don't know.
(11) Texas COVID-19 Death counts:
Under reported due to misattribution.
Delayed from the Day of Death by 21-28 days.
An interested reporter should visit some Hospital dashboards, morgues and Funeral homes to get a better look.
Under reported due to misattribution.
Delayed from the Day of Death by 21-28 days.
An interested reporter should visit some Hospital dashboards, morgues and Funeral homes to get a better look.
(12) The Texas Dashboard is reporting 32 fatalities for Jefferson County, the county containing Beaumont, TX.
(13) The Beaumont Health statistics provided by the local Health Care Providers shows 907 Deaths related to COVID-19 at a Beaumont Hospital.
The State: 32
The Hospitals: 907
providers.beaumont.org/covid-19/coron…
The State: 32
The Hospitals: 907
providers.beaumont.org/covid-19/coron…
(14) The State Dashboard says Harris County (Houston) has had 353 CoVID-19 Deaths.
The Texas Medical Center (TMC) in Houston says 525 COVID-19 Deaths occurred at the TMC, alone.
The Texas Medical Center (TMC) in Houston says 525 COVID-19 Deaths occurred at the TMC, alone.
(15) I'm more familiar with Houston and East Texas than the rest of the state, but the low counts in Dallas (334), Fort Worth (218), San Antonio (104) and Austin (116) on the State Dashboard are also suspiciously low.
(16) In summary, the CoVID-19 Death data from Texas is not cause for optimism.
It's underreported.
It's long delayed.
It's suspiciously low when compared to other sources.
It's underreported.
It's long delayed.
It's suspiciously low when compared to other sources.
