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Early in the pandemic we noticed that some countries responded very successfully to the #COVID19 pandemic.

We teamed up with colleagues around the world and studied 3 countries in depth – to learn how they were so much more succesful.

After months of work, this is now out!
👇
With epidemiologists @DaveKennID, @A_Seale & @DanielBausch2 we developed the framework to identify the countries that responded successfully.

In this (very data-rich) article we explain how we selected Korea, Germany, and Vietnam.
ourworldindata.org/identify-covid…
South Korea responded particularly well.

The research team of @AriadneLabs studied how the country did it – and what the rest of the world can learn from Korea:
ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar…
Germany is one of the European countries that stands out.

Colleagues from the Robert Koch Institute – Lothar Wieler and Ute Rexroth – and René Gottschalk studied what Germany got right and what we can learn from it:
ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar…
Vietnam has seen very few cases of COVID, and zero (!) confirmed deaths so far.

A large team of Vietnamese epidemiologists studied the country’s successful response in detail.
ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar…
We picked these 3 countries more than three months ago.

I'm happy to see that the countries that we decided on back then are countries that still stand out today.
We hope the lessons from these 3 Exemplar countries help others to respond well too.

If you want to stay up to date on this collaborative project you can follow us at @exemplarshealth.
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
The population of the US is 330 million
The population of the EU is 446 million

[source ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-…]
And the USA in comparison with several European countries which successfully bent the curve.
The US also had the advantage of having a later outbreak than all of them.

[in our Explorer you can compare with all countries in the world ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
And these big differences are not because the US is testing more extensively.
The opposite is the case: the positivity rate in the US is higher than in all of these countries.

[Source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
New Lancet article asks: Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

It would be very good news if the answer was yes, but unfortunately the authors’ answer is no.

They make three arguments, based on available data:
1st argument: Under herd immunity, the cumulative mortality rate due to COVID-19 per million of the population would be expected to plateau at roughly the same level in different countries.

This is very much not the case.
2nd argument: the data shows that countries that went into lockdown early experienced fewer deaths in subsequent weeks.

This is consistent with lockdowns being responsible, but not with herd immunity being responsible (we would expect no correlation if it was herd immunity).
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
There was no difference in the speed of the outbreak between Italy and the US.
The difference – which is leading to the rapidly rising death toll in the US – is that European countries achieved a much faster decline of the outbreak.

[source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus]
Here is a comparison between the US and many European countries. All in per capita terms.

[direct link to this chart ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
I see people saying the US is appearing worse because they do more extensive testing. No, this is not the case.

Here is the latest testing data relative to the size of the outbreak. Except for Sweden, Western Europe does better than the US.

[Source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-te…]
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