Thread by @jamewils

I predicted on June 12 that Delhi will have 90,000 #COVID19 cases as of June 30.

Now Delhi Govt bulletin is released & the number of cases up to June 30 midnight is 89,802.

There are more to Delhi numbers which will discuss soon below this tweet!

Prima facie it looks like my second part of prediction gone wrong.

It is not the reality...it exactly happened like that...

I will expand this thread soon, I am now entangled in some emergency.

Once I am free, I will disclose you some interesting insights about Delhi..;)

Now let's dissect Delhi data..

when I see Delhi data of June 12, the daily TPCC was 2.78 & the way the daily TPCC was worsening made me to predict that Delhi's daily TPCC may hit 2 soon..then there were only PCR tests.

Things get entangled when Delhi started anti-gen testing..

Please go to June 19..a week after my prediction on TPCC.

Delhi done 7040 antigen testing & out of that 456 positive cases identified.

On that day they done 6034 PCR tests too. Total COVID cases identified on that day was 3137. So 3137-456 = 2679 positive cases through PCR..

What is that means?

Gold standard PCR tests in every 2.25 tests identified a COVID positive case!

We only know about the sensitivity of Anti-gen kits through company claims & also ICMR's trial run..no idea about its sensitivity in real life scenario

Delhi never disclosed whether they run the subsequent PCR testing mandated by ICMR for the people identified as NEGATIVE through PCR tests ..As it was the case let us forget about how many FALSE NEGATIVES they found through anti-gen testing!

Now next day again, Delhi inadvertently disclosed the number of positive cases identified by through the Anti-gen testing through they did not disclose false negatives.

Now look at the data for June 20th

Anti-gen tests - 12680 & positive cases detected is 951.

That is enough to find the positive cases identified by PCR tests on 20th.

Total tests done is 17533, so PCR was 4853...

Total daily positive was 3630, so 3630-951 = 2679 positives through PCR

Let's see TPCC of PCR tests on that day .. 4853/2679

TPCC for PCR was 1.8!

On that Delhi Government decided to stop being their half hearted transparecy!

They stopped to disclose how many positive cases detected through anti-gen tests thereafter!

But maths is a bitch...😉

There after no disclosure about anti-gen testing numbers on 21st.

They disclosed on 22nd that, they done 9356 anti-gen tests and 5326 PCR tests and found a total of 2909 positive cases.

But no disclosure about how many positives through anti-gen tests.

But remember we seen on 19th that 456 positives found by 7040 anti-gen tests.

That means 6.48% hit rate.

On 20th, 951 positives from 12680 anti-gen tests

That means a hit rate of 7.5%

So I assume a 7% rate for 22/06, which returns me 655 positives from anti-gen tests

So there are 2254 positives from 5326 PCR tests. Around 2.36 tests needed for one positive case.

Thereafter what happened?

Delhi reported 3947, 3788, 3390, 3460 on succeeding days. But no disclosure on how many anti-gen tests or PCR!

Transparency thy name is AK!

Then next three days we seen the Delhi numbers are sliding gradually 2948, 2889 and then on 29th the number fell to 2084!

Suddenly AK is ready to disclose you the separate testing numbers!

6538 anti-gen plus 9619 PCR but only 2084 positive cases, Delhi found magical cure!

That means your TPCC suddenly shoot up to 7.75!!! Wow!

AK called Delhi Lyuten's and drum beated that Delhi controlled COVID 😉

When was the last time we seen this daily TPCC before?

May 27th ...when total cases was 15257 😉

A couple of journalists called me..some from national dailies and some from my own mallu guys.

Everyone is surprised with this huge turn around..they ask me, what is happening? I told them that ask AK, ask him to disclose all data at the public domain..I have no crystal ball!

When there is absence of data, it is time to make guess games & conspiracy theories!

Of course, we can throw all this conspiracy theories to the dustbin when Delhi Govt comes out with full disclosures.

With this caveat let me put my stupid crazy theories

Do you notice any difference in the data put on the public domain by AK?

What is the difference between this data & previously disclosed 3 data sets of anti-gen & PCR tests?

First time PCR test numbers gone 1.5 times of anti-gen, all the previous times it was reverse.

So if we guess anti-gen tests have the same strike rate of 6.5% to 7.5%, it could have been detected 425 to 490 positive cases on 29th.

The total positives on that day was just 2084.

That leaves between 1594 to 1659 positive cases through PCR tests!

That means TPCC of 5.8-6.0

It looks so odd to me!! How PCR positivity can fall this low in a week?

Whether Delhi done anything exceptional in a weeks time?

What logical explanation I can offer here?

A big riddle!!!

Before reading further you should read my this #thread on anti-gen tests where I asked some logical questions on its sensitivity as well as economic viability.

Read it slowly...

https://twitter.com/jamewils/status/1276531556002041860?s=19

So first, I want to believe AK that in Delhi COVID growth started falling and what we are going to witness in the coming days is something like what Dr. Paul's fantasy graph shown to us some months back!

I pray for this...but....

But my gut feeling says that Delhi had done repeat PCR on the anti-gen tests.

Understand that anti-gen is for fast surveillance in containment zones. Now they might have done a subsequent PCR on all/brute majority of negatives detected through anti-gen

Let that sink in that before like most States Delhi also limited PCR only on severe symptomatic patients, which returns high TPCC.

Once you extend that to containment zones, it will help you to give a high TPCC, a clever ploy?

No idea, let AK disclose the numbers & let us know

Moreover, my conspiracy brain tells me that the South Korean Company which has a Gurgaon office too wants to push some real time favorable data...because the ICMR trial study is not create a strong case with 50% sensitivity in one site!

Let investigative journos purse this

I only make my solid conclusions, surmises and crazy conjectures based on the data available on the public domain alone.. I have an eye for identifying hidden patterns. But I don't go behind a source or talk to the concerned. Because it is not my job & I am not a journalist..

Delhi numbers are conspicuous & curious!

It needs more voluntary disclosure from the ones who championed for transparency...

Or the air of suspicion will refuse to leave it.

END of my rants ;)