Thread by @munch1201819

For fake news peddlers, Imperial College London stats show R value is below 1. This means every infected person is infecting less than 1 person, i.e. the curve is flattening.
#Pakistan #COVID19 #RealNews
epaper.dawn.com/DetailNews.php…

What does this mean? It means less people are getting infected daily. Would we have to test at the same levels? Of course not. Are suspected cases being tested? Of course. Are actual infections higher? Yes as in every country. Could there be a 2nd wave? It is possible

Can weather affect it? Too early to tell. There are many hypotheses. What is the surest way to reduce infection risk? Avoid gatherings, wash hands wish soap before rouching face or wounds, wear a mask!

To know more about the R value read here nature.com/articles/d4158…
Anyone misquoting or mistepresenting facts, fight it, it is harmful. Feel free to share.

For those crying about test reductions, the numbers we know about are usually of sick (positive) or very sick (hospitalised positive) individuals. This is a small proportion of the total infected. This ratio remains constant approximately constant and linear.

So if sick and very sick reduces it means the total infected population has reduced. As a result less testing is required. If infection remained high, a larger proportion of testing done would come back positive and this is not the case as infections fall.

Pakistan is flattening the curve now. Well done Pakistan. @pid_gov @ImranKhanPTI @PakPMO @InsafPK @zfrmrza @PMtigers @PTIPoliticsss @PTI_Achievement @sayedzbukhari

For those jumping on the band wagon, excess deaths and confirmed deaths by covid 19 are not the same thing. There were 30,000 excess deaths in the UK not recorded, 20,000 suspected due to covid 19. That is 10,000 non covid extra deaths.

https://twitter.com/SecKermani/status/1279642115467812864?s=19

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-532800… the reality of these extra deaths are for many reasons, pressure on the health care system, in Pakistan due to poverty during unemployment periods, etc.. excess deaths are reported in all ages and do not correlate to covid deaths

euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

The reality is actual infection rates will be higher by x10 and the same can be said about actual deaths...
nytimes.com/2020/06/27/hea…

Data 6 july. Linear model shows recently a reduction in cases...no time for complacency though... Log scale shows how the curve is flattening i.e. R value near 1 and reducing #coronavirus #covid19PK #COVID19Pakistan

Comparison, we are below world average. UK curve is flattening and reducing as we know and can see, the #pakistan curve is reducing too. We must continue to follow health precautions or infection will go up again. See USA curve starting to increase again. Stay safe! #COVID19

The WHO suggested if 3-12% of those tested come back positive, this is classed as 'fairly extensive' testing occuring. In an ideal world,10 negatives to every 1 positive testing should have occured especially during the peak. WHO media transcript: who.int/docs/default-s… #COVID19