1/ "Should I persevere & stay the course or pivot?" Inevitably, most #startup entrepreneurs will face this challenging decision, more so in turbulent times like now. Is there a decision making framework that can guide founders? Here r my $0.02. Would love to hear ur thoughts too.
2/ First, if u r considering a 3rd option to quit when faced w this decision, then choose to quit. Don't feel bad. U likely learnt a lot more than ur frnds who opted for a steady job. Use break to reflect, acquire more skills, build bigger network, find a big prob & attempt again
3/ By quitting now, you will save a bigger heart burn later, save your time and your investor's capital.
With that out of the way, the remaining 2 options, when faced, are very often tough to decide upon for passionate, committed entrepreneurs who don't like to quit.
With that out of the way, the remaining 2 options, when faced, are very often tough to decide upon for passionate, committed entrepreneurs who don't like to quit.
4/ Here is a framework that can help. First off, make sure that you have a well informed and well defined business growth thesis. Continuously inform it from market insights and dynamics. Ur current & prospective customers r the best source. Engage directly. Not thru sales/mkting
5/ While u may have a terrific team, sometimes their incentives introduce bias into the insights. Also inform ur thesis with insights from competition, analysts, macro and global changes that could have ripple impacts on your market. It's important to be thorough & not lose sight
6/ By well defined, I mean that as CEO, you ought to have clear cut growth performance indicators not just in your mind but also communicated to your team. Don't wing it. And don't be afraid to not meet them. In fact they shld be stretch yet realistic.
7/ Once u have that well informed & well defined growth thesis, u can make better decisions. Otherwise might as well flip a coin.
Next, u need to spot shifts in the market that r or may impact your thesis. Again important to rely on multiple sources and keep ears to the ground.
Next, u need to spot shifts in the market that r or may impact your thesis. Again important to rely on multiple sources and keep ears to the ground.
8/ Source these shifts from: a) direct customer insights; b) indirect 3rd party analysis/reports; c) your own constant critical analysis of macro/global trends; and d) bouncing all this off a trusted group of insightful mentors that can validate or invalidate ur data & gut.
9/ Don't underestimate your gut feelings specially when they are not just blindly driven by your passion but also well informed from your market insights. You will realize they are often the best guide and you ought to have paid more attention to it.
10/ Next categorize the market insights/shifts into one of two categories. First category is organic and shallow shifts driven by expected changes and efficiencies that market players are introducing. Sometimes they are natural consequences of changing consumer behaviors.
11/ Second category includes big shifts having far-reaching impact driven by disruptive innovations, major market upheaval, regulatory/legal/tariff changes/barriers, unanticipated change in competitive landscape that can't be easily dealt with.
12) As long as ur growth thesis holds/reqs minor course correction, stay the course. If it's getting majorly impacted due to 1st category market shifts, stay the course but double up ur efforts to counter/respond. Pivot if ur thesis is getting invalidated due to 2nd cat shifts.
13/ Example: You developed a growth thesis. It's not holding true after sincere efforts. Pivot. It's not you, it's your understanding of market/customer. So don't take it personally, just get back to drawing board, re-engage w prospective customers and chart your pivot course.
14/ Example: Ur growth thesis is getting majorly impacted because a competitor introduced subsidized pricing or consumers are moving to a better designed user experience, or a competitor's service delivery is a lot better. Stay the course & adapt, get better team, fight it out.
15/ Example: Corona happened & u r a shared mobility company, Amazon entered market while u r just getting started, a disruptive revenue model invalidates ur pricing thesis - pivot in all cases. The pivots could be major or minor, but staying the course could be fatal.
16/ Plz note it is critical that in all cases, u have a winning team working by ur side. Sometimes it might also mean bringing in a winner in ur own place. Ur exec team needs someone who can sell (to customers, to employees, to investors and partners), & someone who can build.
17/ And not just build, but build great products and experiences. Depending on the industry you are in, you may need more in your executive team and of course an army of believers who help realize your dream.
18/ In summary, have a winning team, build a growth thesis for ur startup, stay constantly informed, do frequently critical analysis of market shifts, bounce things off well meaning & thoughtful advisers, & don't be afraid to react decisively. Not making a decision is the worst!
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