Thread by @kayzafar

1. Just saw a tweet by @UdarOfficial announcing Rs 100B Kamyab Jawan program. Awesome! Program design will determine success & I am glad 8 mths of prep went into it. So looking fwd to more details. Here's how I'll design it given 10 mins of prep time...

https://twitter.com/UdarOfficial/status/1130803082235916288?s=19

2. I will target an inflation adjusted flat return on the fund, 400-500K direct & indirect livelihoods, and at least Rs 1 trillion of economic activity to be generated from this program. There will be 5 funding windows in the program.

3. These Windows will be:
1: 5B for youth training, admin & support
2: 40B for micro bizs for youth in bottom of pyramid
3: 40B for small bizs for educated urban youth
4: 10B for startup bizs for high growth ventures
5: 5B for follow-on funding for exceptional performers

4. For Window 1, I'd reach out to LUMS to license their "Kamyab Karobar" curriculum developed & tested successfully w urban youth in KPK & Punjab. Using train the trainer model, I'd build training capacity in multiple institutions in Pak to train over 200K youth b4 funding them.

5. Window 1 will also be used to develop "business kits" for micro & small businesses. 100-200 diff biz kits will allow youth to select the one they are interested in. They'll contain biz play books, authorized suppliers, skills required, dos/donts, earning potential, resources

6. These kits have huge benefits. Pre designed/vetted micro/small bizs, avoid giving cash & instead biz equipment & inputs at pre-negotiated bulk purchase rates, gotchas & risks identified, processes outlined, training streamlined. They reduce failure/default risk. Enable success

7. Example: Mobile Repair Shop Kit contains where to get trained from, auth supplier to purchase repair stand & tools from, ideal locations, how much time needs to be allocated/day, what's the earning potential, how much equity is required, loan limits, marketing techniques, etc.

8. About 80% of the funds go towards training youth to manage micro/small bizs. The rest go towards development of kits & support a super talented, passionate mgmt team of the program. They will also be tasked to establish distribution/collection channels for this massive prog.

9. Window 2 will have 40B to give out micro biz kits to selected youth profiled by the psychometric test from Kamyab Karobar program. 200K youth will be provided on avg 200K loan. Biz kits will be generally for direct to consumer, daily cash bizs w potential to earn 1000/day.

10. This'll be a 5yr loan at 5%, returned in 20 qtrly installments of 12K/qtr starting from 3 months after loan origination. Will require every1 to open digital wallet acnts & pay via wallets. Loan will be 100% biz kits while cash 4 opex will be pitched in by youth as equity.

11. Micro biz from window 2 will create 1 livelihood per loan resulting in 200k livelihood support micro bizs and generate over 500B+ worth economic activity over 5 years assuming each biz generates around 500k+ economic activity per year.

12. Window 3 will target 20,000 small biz entrepreneurs in urban centers who will be given on avg 2M loan for 5 years at 10%. These will be larger biz kits like BBQ Restaurant, small private school, fashion boutique, etc. Ideally consumer bizs also, but some b2b.

13. The small biz loans will be returned in 10 equal 6 monthly payments of around 325K. They will be expected to create 5-10 additional direct or indirect livelihoods resulting in approx 150K jobs and generate 400B+ eco activity over 5 yrs assuming 4M/biz/yr.

14. For Window 4, I will co-invest 2B with 5 internationally renowned VC funds each on 1:1 basis & give them call options to buy my share out within 5 yrs at 12% markup. 10B mine & 10B coinvested by funds like Sequoia & Tiger Global will fund 30-40 high growth potential startups

15. Each will receive on avg 400-500M after mgmt fees. These 30-40 startups will be expected to generate 50k-100k direct and indirect livelihoods and 100B+ economic activity over 5 years.

16. The last 5B window is to provide follow-on funding to exceptional performers of the micro, small & startup programs to fuel their growth. They'll be identified through a regular but simple reporting mechanism to the funds mgmt. Capital will be provided on commercial terms.

17. This yields a flat inflation adjusted return on portfolio basis. There will be failures, defaults, frauds but that's part of a large development experiment. A good mgmt team, use of tools, systems, processes and regular monitoring & support can reduce these risks.

18. Big challenge of a prog like this is distribution, mgmt & collection costs/complexities. Have to use channels. Also, transparency & objectivity in selection is key. Delegating to reputable nonpolitical, pvt sector institutions will help.

19. Attempts to use banks for distribution of small loans have failed in the past. Orgs like Akuwat might work for micro loans window but they might have issue w interest. So efficient, transparent and effective distribution channel would be my first assignment for the mgmt team.

20. We need to create over 1M jobs/yr in Pakistan to accommodate youth entering job market. These programs targeting micro, small & startup entrepreneurship r key to improving our macroeconomics. They also engage our youth towards more productive activities. Bravo @ImranKhanPTI!