Thread by @oommen

My latest situation assessment.

#DataNarrative #HealthExpress | Declining COVID19 Burden in Delhi and Mumbai: Assessing Unlock and Planning for the Future orfonline.org/expert-speak/d… via @orfonline

Surprisingly, a look at the weekly new case load reveals that notwithstanding the public perception to the contrary, Mumbai has managed to keep the numbers almost constant across five weeks. @orfonline

Despite a worrying rise in cases in the 1st half of the Unlock period which caused administrative panic, Delhi too was able to bring down the level of new infections through well-coordinated efforts between the Delhi government, the Central govt, and the MCD. @orfonline

A look at death data from the five weeks of Unlock shows that after the nightmarish week of 10-17 June, the number of deaths have certainly come down in both Mumbai and Delhi. @orfonline

While testing numbers in Delhi have seen substantial improvement ( yes, more than half of it is rapid antigen tests) over the Unlock period, testing in Mumbai seems to have stagnated, and is, in fact, going down. @orfonline

It is clear that aggressive testing and contact tracing have helped Delhi bring down the positivity rate, and the spread of the virus itself, even if possible false negatives may have exaggerated the fall. @orfonline

However, it is of great concern that the stagnation in testing numbers in Mumbai is paralleled by a rapidly increasing test positivity rate, currently nearing 38%, which means that Mumbai is still finding one positive case for every three tests done. @orfonline