If we went hit net-zero or carbon neutral today, how much carbon do we need to remove to maximize diversity and climate restoration by 2100? See thread for more info on #beyondneutral #climateaction #climatejustice @ExtinctionR
Fossil fuel emissions since 1750, have spread between the air, oceans, and land. By the latest count per the globalcarbonproject.org, the distribution looks like the linked chart. Multiply by 3.664 to convert the amounts to gigatonnes carbon dioxide. (1.7 Tt CO₂ & 2.4 Tt CO₂) Image
How big is this amount? The brown+red bars equals about 656 Gt Carbon by weight which is about 2M Empire State buildings. This amount is roughly equal to all green and blue bars and should be removed to restore the planet. bluebulbprojects.com/measureofthing…
If we kept the landsink as productive as it is today or made it more productive, how much do we need to address? The red bar equates to fossil fuel emissions, and is distributed to the blue bars: oceans and atmosphere. That amount is roughly 1.5 M Empire state buildings.
These numbers get larger if we don't stop using fossil fuels. We need to quickly cut back on fossil fuels as we ramp up in renewables and switch over. This is doable, most of the technology already exists. And we need to go as fast as possible by also doing CarbonDioxideRemoval
What happens if we don't do it? If we don't switch before melting the East Antarctic ice sheet, we'll have to suffer the consequences of even more accelerated warming-induced catastrophe: droughts, starvation, etc. as all other tipping elements would have already been tipped.
Current science predicts it's not possible to return after tipping past the last tipping point. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1…, phys.org/news/2019-11-c… #ClimateCrisis
We have to reach neutral no later than 2030, ideally sooner to maximize the biodiversity we still have. As we come out of Corona lockdowns we need to sharply cut fossil fuel use and increase in renewables deployments and efficiency products.
Before reaching neutral we need to expand R& especially D in DirectAirCapture (#DAC) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (#CDR). At neutral we need to be ready to deploy large scale CDR projects. Think lots of Stripe Carbon Negative purchases. & stuff like barrons.com/video/green-en…
Once safely away from setting off the tipping points and have reversed them, we might be able to back off a tiny bit. However, bit.ly/CDRMEx (uses SW model also used by IPCC) predicts to reach 0ºC of warming, all anthropogenic carbon must be removed. Image
Amazingly, we don't have full AMGCMs run with reaching neutral before 450 ppm, (activating more tipping elements) and seeking 0ºC of warming. We only have models that end with less than 1.5ºC of warming but warmer than the year 2000.
We should study reaching neutral asap and before hitting 450 ppm, and seek full restoration by 2100 on a full Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model. bit.ly/cdrmexprj
If we reach neutral today we still have carbon in the atmosphere and oceans that we must remove in order to get to less than 1.5ºC. And we have even more emissions to remove if we want to seek #climatejustice #climateequity.
What is this amount for complete climate restoration by 2100? It's on the order of 1.7 to 2.4 trillion tones of CO2. It's the last option in the poll. Want to maximize biodiversity? It's the last option in the poll.
We have to not only reach carbon neutral but continue that work to reach neutral and exceed that amount and go negative to pull out vast amounts of carbon every year till 2100 to restore the climate to have the same level of heat that it did before 1900. #ClimateJustice Image
As a metaphor, we have to turn off the tap and keep baling emissions until the tub is empty. We've been filling the tub since 1750. It's at best just the red bar, at worst we need to bail the red and brown bars: Image
We as humans have to decide if it's worth it to give up our fossil fuel habits and use new technology or stop using fossil fuel-powered devices in order to have a better climate tomorrow, in 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070 and onward to 2100. Vote!
Actually, that poll not worded correctly! At, the worst case if we wait till 2030 to do any removal, or hit neutral, we'll have exceeded the carbon budget and would need to remove ≈3 trillion tonnes of CO₂. If we were to start seeking net-zero now, it's closer to about 2TtCO2.
(This is assuming we keep the land sink as productive as it is now.) The land sink is about 500Gt CO2 currently. I'm very interested in the principle, are people interested in making choices to maximize biodiversity? Are we willing to make our livelihoods more STEM-based?

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More from @safiume

24 Sep 20
@iAyori No, but I usually make into a tomato marinara sauce base. Can be used for pasta and pizza, and any other recipe that uses tomato/tomato paste/etc.
@iAyori I'll have to remember the proportions...
spices: oregano, marjoram, italian parsley, thyme, 1 tiny bit of rosemary if fresh
1/4 onion, 3-5 cloves garlic, add spices, light sautée reduction in EVOO low then med heat,
(pinch of all the spices, adjust per dish) ...
@iAyori Cook till garlic is golden brown,
Pull the garlic pending on dish, (more garlic flavor, leave it in, otherwise its a chef's appetizer.)
Then add tomatoes, stir, and simmer.
If the dish doesn't need further cooking then med simmer till tomatoes & spices and oil are fully mixed.
Read 6 tweets
23 Sep 20
1/ I took a look at the poll data taken 09/8-09/9 2020, just as the epic smoke started to hit the entire West Coast.

(West Coast NOAA Data 9/9)
2/ The details of the poll are fascinating! There's actually a majority to 60-70% majority for many pro-climate topics. Remember, this poll was taken as the smoke started to hit the entire West Coast. I'm not sure how many west coast ppl were participants.
3/ Question 11 is a beauty!

See page 45! Majority support to supermajority support for GND, decarbonizing the grid by 2035.
Read 22 tweets
18 Sep 20
1/ I was tracing out how much carbon we should remove to get a nice climate by 2100, & found that we should realistically remove all we've emitted based cumulative emissions listed in the Global Carbon Project and wrote about it in my preprint paper: doi.org/10.1002/essoar…
2/ The paper says if we act fast enough (i.e. before setting off more tipping points), we just need to remove all the CO₂ we've emitted. I ended up seeing in the experiments, was we must also stop using fossil fuels, to get to about <0.1ºC by 2100. bit.ly/cdrmexprj Image
3/ The 15 tipping elements are outlined: doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1… & quantified in the supplemental materials. Additionally, an older tipping point was highlighted by @DrJamesEHansen which is that we should definitely not exceed 450 ppm. doi.org/10.2174/187428…
Read 17 tweets
16 Sep 20
An interesting article and thread showing how women can improve productivity for Japan.
'Japanese workers simply waste a lot of time. Crushingly long hours in the office leave them too exhausted to be fully productive. Companies tend to value employees based on how much time they put in, not how much they actually get done.' @Noahpinion
A bit shocked to see the percentages below 30% for women in government. Hopefully, ppl will make headway towards equality.
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep 20
So, yesterday I feel like I snuck out of the house... I went riding to Mt. Tam. I talked to no one. My only interaction was with the road, traffic, smokey air, touchless paying for gas w/ my phone as I had full protective gear. Felt like discovering a new country. ...
I would visit this area often as a child and teen, so to see the low visibility from ash and smoke, mixed with the marine layer was rather new. It didn't feel like those childhood memories, the majestic cannons that meet Muir Woods now obscured by smog. ... ImageImageImageImage
It felt like we burned Endor. The acrid smokey air mixed with the lush backdrop of overgrown evergreen forests. COVID lockdowns, and rains have really made the entire area extra lush. Under the ashy-smokey air, you could feel the forests breathing. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
10 Sep 20
Megafires and Climate Change thread
Active Pacific Tipping Points:
* Pacific West Forests destruction, from Washington State to Mexico, a larger forest area than just Boreal forests
* El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Climate change cause: red and brown bars, Fossil Fuel emissions since 1750, and land-use change since 1750. CO₂ Emissions get absorbed by either land in green, or oceans and air in blues. Oceans & air increase in CO₂ concentration cause warming and ocean acidification.
2/4 ImageImage
Some of the earlier pink bars are El Nino years.

These should not be seen as a safe target to return to.
By 2100 we should reach for the bars in darker blue not just salmon which is <1.5ºC.
3/4 Image
Read 5 tweets

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