BJP wants to cook a Kichdi in Tamilnadu politics, with Equal amounts of Sugar, Salt & Chili !
#Thread
With Mrs.Sasikala`s release expected any time in near future, political equations in Taminadu likely to change ! /1
#Thread
With Mrs.Sasikala`s release expected any time in near future, political equations in Taminadu likely to change ! /1
AIADMK, when it was started by Mr.MGR was seen as a Thevar party, as he successfully consolidated the Thevar community vote bank under his party fold. Thevar is a prominent community in terms of numbers (electoral) in South & Delta Tamilnadu. /2
Mr.MGR`s political success was primarily because of the amalgamation of votes from West & South Tamilnadu. AIADMK is strong in Western Tamilnadu,not only because of the Gounder community votes, but also Arunthathiyar votes. Both the community staunchly support AIADMK! /3
Perhaps Western block is the only place in TN where the Dalit (Aurnthathiyars) & Backward Class (Gounders) overwhelmingly support a party jointly. DMK the arch-rival of ADMK was strong in Northern Tamilnadu, where Vanniyars are majority. /4
During the time of MGR, AIADMK used to win big in South & Western Tamilnadu. Where as in Northern Tamilnadu- DMK was still strong & invincible! From late 2000`s ADMK was able to make inroads to the vote bank of DMK pockets in Northern region. /5
ADMK was able to win big from 2011 to 2016 in all the elections it contested because of this change in dynamics. As long as Miss. Jayalaithaa was alive, she commanded the party completely! Party cadres obliged her. Her orders were taken as commandments! /6
After her sudden demise, the party was divided. Mrs.Sasikala before imprisonment, made Mr.EPS, the Chief Minister of Tamilnadu. She could have chose a member from her clan or Thevar community for the post of chief minister. Instead she chose, a person from Gounder community. /7
Mrs.Sasikala was the strategist behind the success of Miss.Jayalaithaa in politics. Being in politics for more than three decades, she clearly knew that MLAs from western block is the reason ADMK was able to make a historic back to back victory in 2016 assembly election. /8
But she was imprisoned even before Mr.EPS took oath as CM. When Mr.EPS became CM, hopes were high among party cadres. But he ditched Mrs.Sasikala as per the orders of his Delhi masters. To the shock of many, he is not neutral to the post he holds. /9
Importance was given only to Western block of TN, Caste disparities were high in the party postings & most of the cadres felt there is no inclusiveness. Especially the Thevar community ministers & cadres were sidelined. They were not given due importance in govt & party. /10
Mrs.Sasikala is the only person in ADMK who can patch all these disparities & unite the party under a single command. End of the day, TN politics is all about caste. The only hope for DMK to win the assembly election in 2021 is the shortcomings of ADMK. /11
Mrs.Sasikala is expected to be pre-released from prison any time in near future. BJP now wants to stitch them all together & make the party strong enough to take on DMK in 2021 election. There is no doubt that Mrs.Sasikala know the nuances of TN politics & can unite the party./12
But the terms of BJP are unrealistic. They want a rainbow coalition with ADMK, BJP, Rajinikanth`s yet to be started party, PMK, DMDK. The demand for 30% of the seats for BJP, Rajini is unreasonable. This would only favor DMK. /13
If this materializes, seats that would be allotted to BJP+Rajini`s unnamed party could be a cakewalk for DMK. Even before elections we can write these seats under DMK column. Facing election without CM candidate may go against ADMK camp in the assembly election. /14
The perception of people may be against this Kichdi politics. Mr.TTV.Dhinakaran might also be forced to merge his party with ADMK. In that case it could hamper his long term political ambition. This would be seen as set back for him. /15
If BJP really wants to check DMK from coming power, then they should make Mrs.Sasikala the supremo of ADMK & leave the rest of decisions to her when it comes to alliance & seat sharing. BJP is an extra baggage when it comes to alliance in Tamilnadu. /16
One of the main reasons DMK lost 2001 assembly election was it`s alliance with BJP. 90% of Tamils don`t like BJP & the ideology it represents. BJP should stop trying to make this unpalatable kichdi & leave the rest to Mrs.Sasikala & ADMK to handle things on their own! /n
