Thread by @AAlJaishi

Since the #cornavirus pandemic was called, countries used different strategies to handle #COVID19. In general, there are 3 ways to handling a pandemic:
1) Do nothing to slow the spread of infections
2) Global coordination efforts to crush the virus
3) Delay and vaccinate
(1/13)

Approach 1:
Governments and communities do nothing or very little to slow infections in the community (e.g. like Sweden). As a result, we see a surge in the number of cases. Without much time for researchers to study the virus, doctors will know little about treatments.
(2/13)

Approach 1 (cont)
As a result, we see hospitals reaching capacity and death rates rising due to infections *OR* healthcare system collapse (e.g Italy and some US states). Once most of the population has been infected, herd immunity kicks in and will starve the virus of hosts
3/13

Approach 1 (cont):
NOTE: for COVID19, herd immunity will LIKELY occur when more than 70 to 80% of the population is immune to the virus. Reaching herd immunity with this approach will likely result in a devastating death rate.
(4/13)

Approach 2:
Global governments SIMULTANEOUSLY coordinate public health measures by halting travel and locking down countries. If coordinated properly, the pandemic can be quickly ended. This only works if measures are left in place until the virus is COMPLETELY eradicated
(5/13)

Approach 3:
Governments / communities slow viral spread to give researchers time to develop / test new treatments and vaccines. The tactics used may include widespread testing, contact tracing, intermittent lockdowns, limiting social gatherings, physical distancing, etc.
(6/13)

Approach 3 (cont):
As a result of these public health measures, we see the virus slowly spreading in the community and at times may see larger outbreaks. Communities may relax/reinstate (some) public health measures over time.
(7/13)

Approach 3 (cont):
Once an effective vaccine is available (and 🤞 freely accessible for all), we hope that >80% of people will vaccinate to achieve herd immunity. The virus may re-surge and we may require more vaccinations. Nevertheless, the virus will fizzle out overtime.
(8/13)

***So, which is the best approach?***

Approach 1 (do nothing) would / could be a global catastrophe ending with millions of unnecessary deaths. Also, this approach may not work if people can be re-infected by COVID19.
(9/13)

Approach 2 (global coordination) is highly unrealistic. It is hard to believe that countries around the world would cooperate and follow a single strategy. In fact, some world leaders still believe (at least publicly) that COVID19 is a “hoax” or not a real threat.
(10/13)

Approach 3: “Flattening the curve” until we have a vaccine is considered the best option. The success of this approach requires local, provincial, national, and as much global co-operation as possible.
(11/13)

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1282510061043175425?s=20

Once effective vaccines are developed and most have been vaccinated, the virus will be starved of hosts and will die out. The virus may still re-surge seasonally (e.g. like the flu), however, its effects will likely be minimal given advances in prevention and treatment.
(12/13)

Take heart, the pandemic will end, and the legacy won’t be all bad. The breakthroughs and social services developed can improve society. The inspiration taken from the successes and lessons from the failures can keep the next virus contained so that it won't become a pandemic
END

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