China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) Profile picture
Jul 16, 2020 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
TREAD:China’s #GDP grew by 3.2% yoy in Q2,but high-frequency data in Jun show that the recovery is slowing down in some sectors. For its economy to return to pre-pandemic level,a few more quarters are still needed,according to a CF40 #Macroeconomic report to be released soon: 1/7
PRODUCTION recovery in China has begun slowing down, particularly for some downstream industries like textile, papermaking, wine and beverages, agricultural byproducts etc. 2/7 ImageImageImage
CONSUMPTION recovery lacks momentum. Demand for durable consumer products such as commercial houses and cars is improving following the peak of the pandemic, but the recovery has shown sign of slowing down. 3/7 ImageImage
LAND TRANSACTION AREA, as a leading indicator of real estate investment in China, saw sizable decline in June from May and April. Two consequences of weak economic recovery are low price level (core #CPI for June: 0.9%) and high unemployment rate. 4/7 ImageImageImage
Four policy suggestions based on the current situation: It is still necessary for China to strengthen counter-cyclical measures while maintaining moderate flexibility in macroprudential policies and enhancing financial regulation: 5/7
1. Monetary policy should be active and loose to keep the interbank rate at low and stable level.
2. Strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to improve the efficiency of countercyclical policies.
6/7
3. Allow moderate flexibility in macroprudential policies and improve banks’ capability in serving the real economy.
4. Further optimize financial regulation, strictly ban abuse of funds and improve incentive mechanism.
7/7 #COVID19 #economics #economicrecovery

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More from @ChinaFinance40

Feb 22, 2023
According to CF40’s latest macroeconomic quarterly report ‘China's Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Sustainability of Government Debt’, China has never heavily relied on budgetary spending to provide counter-cyclical stimulus. 1/5
Instead, it mainly adopts a model where local governments, financial institutions and local government financing vehicles work together to boost investment. 2/5
Statistics show that such a model has helped China stabilize its economic growth, but also increased the broad government debt to GDP ratio, raising concerns about the sustainability of government debt. 3/5
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Feb 22, 2023
China could consider implementing negative individual income tax (IIT) to boost consumption and employment, advises CF40 research department. 1/4
It means that the government provides taxpayers with a certain amount of subsidy when the level of working income is lower than a given threshold. 2/4
A CF40 policy brief proposes a two-pronged policy scheme consisting of rewards and subsidies for businesses adding new jobs on one hand, and negative IIT on the other hand, which could drive spending and employment without causing excessive fiscal expenditure burdens. 3/4
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Feb 21, 2023
The PBC's "benign neglect," an indirect policy tool devised in 2022 to influence the value of the RMB, was quite successful. It allows the market to determine the exchange rate while retaining capital controls as a last resort.1/5
It should be the most effective currency strategy for China's central bank, said CF40 Advisor Yu Yongding in a recent seminar.2/5
China should maintain a floating exchange rate regime to bring out its role as an automatic stabilizer while maintaining necessary capital control as a last resort.3/5
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Feb 17, 2023
Despite the shrinking working-age population, there is a tremendous pool of surplus rural labor in China., said Caifang, Chief Expert of National Think Tank of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 1/5
Many analysts predict that China will not have a rapid growth rate in the future or emerge as the largest economy in the world because its working-age population and total labor have stopped growing. 2/5
23% of the total labor in China are rural labor. In comparison, the percentage in highincome economies is only 3% or 4%. That means China needs to transfer 20% of its labor from rural to urban industries, which is huge given China’s enormous population. 3/5
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Feb 16, 2023
#China could consider implementing negative individual income tax (IIT) to boost consumption and employment, suggests CF40 Research Department in a 2022 policy brief ‘Negative Individual Income Tax: Some Thoughts on Policies to Drive Employment and Consumption’. 1/4
It means that the government provides taxpayers with a certain amount of subsidy when the level of working income is lower than a given threshold. 2/4
The policy brief proposes a two-pronged policy scheme consisting of rewards and subsidies for businesses adding new jobs on one hand, and negative IIT on the other hand, which could drive spending and employment without causing excessive fiscal expenditure burdens. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3, 2023
Given China’s macroeconomic environment in December 2022, the following policies should be taken to boost China’s economic growth and deal with potential risks, said ZHANG Bin, CF40 Nonresident Senior Fellow: 1/5
1. Lower interest rate by 25 bps each time until the employment and growth targets are hit.
2. Issue new types of fiscally subsidized bonds and policy loans to support investment in public goods and quasi-public goods infrastructure projects that feature limited returns.2/4
3. Set up special funds to help market entities battered during the pandemic get back on their feet; increase the amount of living allowance for low-income groups. 3/5
Read 6 tweets

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