Thread by @sambit_dash

Thread:
So some sly tweets and shades thrown at me for calling out the anti-science part of conducting Puri #rathajatraJatra this year. Official inconsistencies about the positive cases notwithstanding, some basic science education for the smarter-by-the-half folks. #Odisha

Firstly, one can start spread of #coronavirus 3 days prior to showing symptoms, in fact maximally infective a day prior to appearance of symptoms. Both asymptomatic & pre-symptomatic can spread. 4-32% in results by WHO. #rathajatra #COVID19

China & Singapore data shows pre-symptomatic spread accounts for 50 to 75% of the spread. Asymptomatic infection has been shown to be be from 4-32% in studies reported by WHO. #covidscience #Odisha

So, as official claims go, if they tested 1143 servitors on 22nd Jan (& unbelievably got the result in matter of 16-17 hrs) and one servitor tested positive, he has been a source since the past 3-4 days. Puri had very low number of cases as pro-festival champions pointed out.

In that case, the finding of servitors (who again were reported to observe quarantine as a ritual since centuries) as affected should raise the C word (community, stupid). #rathajatra2020 #odisha

Test per positive or test positivity of Odisha is a low 10 as on 23rd Jul. It was around 10 during the Ratha Jatra period. By now we know what this means. Odisha tests very few, so finds fewer positives.

Also, asymptomatic patients who have short viral shedding duration or may have low viral nucleic acid are undetectable on RT-PCR. In fact, 1 or 2 spreaders are well capable of spreading it to 100s and pretty fast. Known stuff by now, if you understand basic science.

Data from Karnataka's extensive contact tracing as well as other studies reveal that 1 covid positive has on avg 4 high risk or primary contacts.

Another issue! As per various reports 50 platoons of police force was deployed in Puri during the festival. From MH, TN, Delhi, Tel examples we know how large number of police force gets affected. Not all were tested of course. #Police #COVID19

And if you are assuming 50 platoon force has distancing and safety measures, be my guest. Where do these forces get deployed after the festival? Yea, right..

Another point. Administration reported they conducted 7500+ tests during that period, a period right after which cases have exponentially been growing in Odisha. What’s the opportunity cost (dedhshyanas can search the term) of these many tests, when test per positive was so low?

Finally, there is some exuberance among the jingoists that the whole Ratha Jatra was concluded and only few positives turned out. It’s like, I have never died in a road accident so road accidents aren’t a problem really. #rathajatra2020

So, one can go on and say that we don’t care about science, religious festival is important to us, so screw science, we should get it done. Cool, that way. Else, hypocrisy is a Swedish death metal band. #JaiJagannath