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When an organization uses "induced jobs" when talking about economic impacts, you know they overpaid for shoddy analysis.
Add up all the indirect effects, you'll get roughly two jobs for every job! And including induced gets really crazy. With not unreasonable assumptions, I can show you oil and gas accounts for infinity percent of Canada's economy.

INFINITY!!! ... must be an important sector.
Good resource: "uses and abuses" in IO analysis pc.gov.au/research/suppo…
On the 🚨infinity🚨 share of Canada's economy, I made the same point when critiquing some bad economic impact analysis related to the Calgary games.
Source: calgary.ca/csps/recreatio…
It's not hard to just **not use this kind of analysis**! It's cheaper, it's easier, and it's better to just ... not use it!
Worth re-upping this old piece: financialpost.com/opinion/trevor…

"economic impact studies, especially those regarding induced effects, aren’t what they’re cracked up to be."
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Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
The $133 billion is the estimate of the gap between current assets and future pension commitments. It isn’t an “unfunded liability” in any sense that matters for the APP discussion. I’ll try to explain. #ableg
The CPP is funded by contributions of current workers and returns on investments. This is because of a sensible reform in the late-90s to ensure CPP is sustainable in the long run.
If we were to stop *ALL* contributions from workers but still pay out pension benefits that people have accumulated/earned then would current assets be enough? No. Does that mean CPP isn’t funded? No. Worker contributions make up the difference!
Read 11 tweets
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Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
Recommendation 1 is to reform fiscal stabilization and hold an equalization referendum. Okay, fair enough to debate.

The analysis presented around Recommendation 1, however, is 100% false. It's mistakes like this that undermines the credibility of the panel's work. #ableg
It's not that these numbers are made up. Not at all. You can review them for yourself here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…

These represent the gaps between federal revenue from Albertans and spending in the province. It's not specifically about equalization. Not at all.
To learn more, I wrote about how to measure such fiscal transfers, and how to account for them by program, for the Canadian Tax Journal here: trevortombe.com/publication/tr…

TL;DR: Gap due to strong econ. And EQ accounts for as much 'transfer' out of Alberta as the GST. #FunFact
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Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe
Unemployment in Canada rose to 13% in April, but that masks much of the story. Many have zero hours. Many others exited the labour force.

I've put together some alternative measures of the 'effective' unemployment rate in #cdnecon. Now: 32%. (Will explain in this thread.)
This says that unemployment "would have been" 32% if the participation rate and average hours were unchanged between February and April 2020. Usually this doesn't change much from month-to-month. See red line pre-Feb.
And here's the decomposition of the changes. Much of the increase is because of people leaving the labour force (who aren't counted as "unemployed").
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