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PROVINCIAL UPDATE 23 JULY

• Changes from yesterday highlighted
• 7 day average of new cases
• Daily new cases graph of Free State

#COVID19inSA #COVID19SA
7 day average of new cases

• Highest daily increases for FS, MP & NC
• GP average has seen a decline over the past few days while KZN has leveled off
• WC curve on my graph took a small dive after the reallocation of cases so for one of the days I had to put an increase of 0
Daily new cases in Free State

With Free State currently experiencing the highest growth rate from all the provinces I thought it was worth showing this graph again.
New cases was over 1 000 for the first time today and the average is currently 876.
Remember that the EC hospital nos. on my table are not inclusive of everyone admitted. I use it because it's the only hospital info on EC.
I've only seen 2 updates from province in the last 3 months on hosp. nos.
Below is the last one and you can see how much higher the nos. are
Not sure why Limpopo deaths are so delayed getting to national stats but here's the Limpopo report for those wondering why I have extra deaths for Limpopo
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More from @sugan2503 see all

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sugan naidoo
@sugan2503
PROVINCIAL UPDATE 20 JULY

• Changes from yesterday highlighted
• Cumulative cases graph
• Comorbid diseases table

Cases from WC have been reallocated so numbers have gone down there, as a result I can't work out what the actual increase for cases and recoveries were today.
Cumulatve cases graph

FS curve the one that stands out on this graph by the way it's been bending up.
Here's a quick comparison of number of days to go from 1000 to 10 000 cases to give you an idea of the growth in FS:

FS - 24
WC - 28
EC - 37
NW - 37
GP - 59
KZN - 62
Here's the weekly look at the co-morbid diseases table:

Fatality rates per category have not changed too much over the last few weeks, I just put this out weekly because I know there's new people who may not have seen it as yet.

Check the end of the thread regarding obesity
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sugan naidoo
@sugan2503
PROVINCIAL UPDATE 20 JUNE

• Changes from yesterday highlighted
• No hospital update given today

Since, according to the official numbers, GP now has more active cases than WC... today I'm going discuss why maybe that's not actually the case.

#Covid19SA #COVID19inSA
I know there's going to be a lot of talk about GP now having more active cases than WC, but in theory, I don't feel it's true.
Since WC changed it's testing strategy, the dip in the 7 day average was very noticeable - and not consistent with I expected from the curve.
I created a projection of where the average might be if not for the change.
This is what I considered:
• Change in strategy only applied to public facilities
• More testing was done in private
• Cases under 55 make up about 70% of cases
• Some under 55 will still be tested
Read 8 tweets
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sugan naidoo
@sugan2503
PROVINCIAL UPDATE 27 MAY

• Changes from yesterday highlighted
• Update on weekly deaths
• 7 day average of new cases graph

#COVID19 #COVID19inSA
[1/3] Weekly deaths in SA from Natural causes:

Tracking weekly deaths occurring vs the expected average is very important to gauge the impact of the virus.

Looking at SA on a whole, the effects are not really noticeable, but taking a closer look at WC...
[2/3] Weekly deaths from Natural causes:

We can see there's a definite upward trend now occurring in WC. Remember this data is from a week back so the spike will be even higher right now.

And taking an even closer look at the metros...
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