Thread by @TizBreda

Yesterday, #ElSalvador's Attorney General's Office arrested former minister Munguía Payés and announced ex president Mauricio Funes will also be investigated, for unlawful acts in relation to the 2012-2014 gang truce.

Is negotiating with criminal gangs an unspeakable crime? /1

According to sources, Munguía Payés was the mastermind of the 2012 government-facilitated dialogue between the country's 3 main gangs (MS-13 & the 2 factions of the 18th Street gang), commonly known as "gang truce".

The goal was simple: reduce homicides. How did it work? /2

In exchange for the gangs’ pledge to scale back their use of violence, the govt would commit to meeting some of the gangs’ requests, including less strict prison regimes for jailed leaders and boosting investment in marginalised communities /3

After an agreement between govt and gangs was reached in March 2012, daily homicides plummeted from 15 to 5, and violence levels remained relatively stable for fifteen months. /4
bit.ly/2CD7CpL

But the process was far from perfect:
- lacked support from other state ministries than Payés'
- while murders went down, disappearances went up
- was not transparent, and gang leaders reportedly benefitted 💵 from it
- was rejected by 75% of population /6
bit.ly/30J4pNk

When it derailed, in 2014, homicides rates skyrocketed again, reaching their peak in 2015, with 103 murders per 100,000 inhabitants, then the highest in the world. /7
bit.ly/3hzGZkd

Munguía Payés is not the first public figure involved in the process that is facing the law: while others were investigated & acquitted, Raúl Mijango, the truce’s chief negotiator, was eventually sentenced to 13 years on extortion charges in 2018. /8
bit.ly/3eTitc0

While the debate about whether the ends justify the means, when the former are good, is constructive, criminalising the whole process is not: particularly worrying is the "illicit association" charge put on the head of a former minister and military official /9

In a recent @CrisisGroup report, we highlighted that the only times in recent history when homicides plunged significantly in the country, coincided with a gangs' decision to do so, including in the 2012 gang truce, rather than as a result of tough law enforcement measures /10

Prosecuting all those involved in one of the most significant violence reduction exercises in the country risks reinforcing the stigma against any form of negotiated solution to the gang issue, which in turn seems to be the most effective way out /11 bit.ly/3hzJ1AR

But Bukele can draw another lesson from the truce's failure & its subsequent criminalisation:

He should consider engaging in a dialogue w/ gangs, but in a transparent, lawful way, & w/ a sincere allegiance to find a durable solution to the gang issue.END bit.ly/2ZXwQrD