Thread by @TizBreda

#Nicaragua is sliding toward protracted, low-intensity conflict, where widespread govt crackdown on dissent, economic fatigue, and humanitarian burden on #CostaRica combine.
@CrisisGroup #WatchList explores ways for #EU to avoid a risky standoff [THREAD]/1 bit.ly/2ME0YAo

Selective opponents (at least 30 so far in 2019) are allegedly on the rise ⬆️, 140 pol prisoners are still detained, the economy is expected to fall 5% this year, 100,000 nicas will have requested asylum in #CostaRica🇨🇷 alone by end of 2019 /2

Foreign engagement w/ Nicaraguan crisis, overshadowed by #Venezuela, has been fragmented. #UN only interacted through OHCHR, OAS slow in implementing democratic charter, #US pursued unilateral moves. #Ortega rejected OAS & UN interference, but interested in easing pressure /3

Months after threatening to use all available "instruments" to find a peaceful solution to the #Nicaragua crisis, the #EU imposed yesterday a sanctions framework that will target officials involved in human rights violations /4 bit.ly/2nK8st8

The decision passes the message that European countries have run out of patience and are eager to impose travel bans and assets freezes to Nicaraguan officials involved in the crackdown on dissent that left 300+ dead and hundreds more detained in 2018 /5 bit.ly/2rKgnFb

Though govt and security officials allegedly don't have high stakes in Europe, the move is highly symbolical, as EU was only Western foreign power not to have imposed punitive measures yet, thereby keeping rel w/ govt mostly cordial. They now add to #US and #OAS ones /6

Mounting international pressure persuaded #Ortega to resume negotiations w/ @AlianzaCivicaNi early this year, combined with the president's fear his key ally in #Venezuela (Maduro) could be toppled, and a shrinking economy and decreasing public approval /7 bit.ly/2UHPdje

But after parties reached key March agreements on political prisoners' release and upholding citizens' rights, the imposition of another round of #US sanctions in April hindered further progress.
All-out pressure isn't enough to resume talks /8 bit.ly/2M2rXXN

EU restraint to select officials, while setting clear conditions for sanctions imposition & their lifting (i.e. resumption of talks and compliance with March agreements), are key to not just corner #Ortega and fuel his anti-imperialist tirade. But it's not enough 👇/9

#EU, MS & others' efforts should include:
- incentives to govt, like backing local peacebuilding initiatives & economic stimulus;
- coordination w/ OAS special commission due to hand report in Nov;
- support to Costa Rica authorities and humanitarian NGOs to avoid spillover [END]

*selective killings of opponents