Thread by @Chxta

There aren't many things that display the shortermism of @NigeriaGov than this NIPOST kerfufle.

It's just the logical continuation of various schemes to extract money from a dwindling formal sector in order to continue funding the hedonistic lifestyles of our elite.

Think about it.

In Lagos, #Nigeria's "most successful" state, an association of thugs virtually ran ride-hailing companies out of the market, because of avarice, and because they couldn't compete. But hey, state capture...

I've heard murmurs that the failure to complete 2 raillines that would unleash the state's productivity is because of interests such as these.

We've seen the drama surrounding #Nigeria's most successful telecoms firm, accused of treason, all in a bid to shake them down.

We are watching drama surrounding #Nigeria's most successful pay-tv firm, including yesterday's ridiculousness regarding a product that many are interested in.

Then there is the action movie about stamp duties on rents.

It's all a marker as to what is to come.

:clears-throat:

At current rates, over the next three decades, #Nigeria's population will more than double, while our average income will drop by average monthly cost of feeding.

Yet our government keeps pursuing policies to make it worse. bit.ly/3f2Pkeq

Think about it.

With the rather high unemployment rate coupled with insane inflation, your government isn't thinking of how to get more people into jobs, rather they are thinking of how to tax more of the formal sector to death.

It's a death wish.

How is it so?

:takes-snuff:

Basically, #Nigeria's population is growing at 2.6% each year. Our GDP is growing at 1.9% a year.

Let's assume that our population really is 200 million. Our GDP is about $397 billion.

If these two figures hold true, then this is Nigeria in the next 10 years:

Population:
2020 - 200m
2021 - 205m
2022 - 211m
2023 - 216m
2024 - 222m
2025 - 227m
2026 - 233m
2027 - 239m
2028 - 246m
2029 - 252m

Then we will end 2020 with 259 million people!

For our GDP these are the corresponnding figures:
2020 - $397b
2021 - $405b
2022 - $412b
2023 - $420b
2024 - $428b
2025 - $436b
2026 - $444b
2027 - $453b
2028 - $462b
2029 - $470b

And in 2030, at current rates, we'll add $9 billion and end the year with $479 billion.

What does this mean for the far more important figure of per capita income?

For each year in this hypothetical future, it means our per capita income will be: $1,985, $1,976, $1,953, $1,944, $1,928, $1,921, $1,906, $1,895, $1,878, $1,865, and $1,849.

So, we'll end the decade with a per capita income of $1,849, $136 less than the current $1,985.

For context, at current exchange rate, $136 is ₦63,376, or what the average Nigerian needs to eat a basic meal each month.

For those of you who like me, love charts, here is what we've been playing with in the office.

Graphics guy no dey, or else the infographic would have been scarier.

If you want to see the raw data, look here: bit.ly/32Urhfy

Remember, this data assumes that we continue on our current anaemic economic growth rate, that is, the government's harebrained policies don't drive away more business.

Population, I can almost bet, will either remain at 2.6% or grow.

Yes, we like to fuck without that much.

This chart projects the next 30 years, ending in 2050.

If the conditions remain the same, we'll have by then, 432 million people, GDP of $712 million, and per capita income of $1,616 (₦727,407), less than we do today.

But what about afterwards?

A Lancet study says we're on track to overtake #China at some point, so taking it to the end of this century, #Nigeria will have 1.6 billion souls, would have become a $1 trillion economy by 2070, but by then, our per capita income would have dropped to just over $1000!

Each Nigerian would have, based on current exchange rates, ₦516,558 at the end of this century.

A huge drop from the ₦893,250 we are currently struggling to get by with.

This is not counting the snowball effects of bad policymaking.

So, #Nigeria is already a hateful place at $1,985 per person, imagine what it would be with consistent real decline, and more mouths to feed.

Well, I don't expect to be here by 2100AD, and neither will my kids or their kids insha Allah.