US officials compare #COVID19 vaccine allocation to oxygen masks dropping on depressurizing plane:
Put yours on first, then help others
Major difference, of course, is the oxygen masks do not drop only in 1st class but that's likely scenario on Covid vaccines
Unless we act 1/
Put yours on first, then help others
Major difference, of course, is the oxygen masks do not drop only in 1st class but that's likely scenario on Covid vaccines
Unless we act 1/
Vaccine nationalism, or a “my country first” approach to COVID19, will have profound & far-reaching health, economic & political consequences
This thread is based on @ForeignAffairs article from @ChadBown & me on those consequences & how to avoid them 2/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
This thread is based on @ForeignAffairs article from @ChadBown & me on those consequences & how to avoid them 2/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Leaders from Macron to Xi Jinping to Guterres refer to #COVID19 vaccines as global public goods
But that won't be reality, at least at first
After proven safe & effective, early vaccine supplies will be limited. Giving them to some people necessarily delays access for others 3/
But that won't be reality, at least at first
After proven safe & effective, early vaccine supplies will be limited. Giving them to some people necessarily delays access for others 3/
That's mostly because vaccine manufacturing is an expensive, complex process, and capacity is limited
Efforts are afoot to expand that capacity but it won't be enough to meet initial global #COVID19 vaccine demand, at least not for months or longer 4/
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Efforts are afoot to expand that capacity but it won't be enough to meet initial global #COVID19 vaccine demand, at least not for months or longer 4/
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
In the past, when confronted by an urgent health crisis and limited medical supplies globally to address it, wealthy nations have hoarded 5/
Over 70 countries plus EU imposed export controls on local supplies of PPE, ventilators, or medicines during the first four months of the pandemic.
This includes most of the countries where potential #COVID19 vaccines are being manufactured 6/
bit.ly/30KoPW6
This includes most of the countries where potential #COVID19 vaccines are being manufactured 6/
bit.ly/30KoPW6
After vaccine was developed for 2009 H1N1 pandemic, wealthy nations bought up virtually all supplies
WHO appealed and US, Canada and 7 other nations donated 10% of their vaccines to LMICs, but only after concluding there was enough for domestic needs 7/
doi.org/10.1371/journa…
WHO appealed and US, Canada and 7 other nations donated 10% of their vaccines to LMICs, but only after concluding there was enough for domestic needs 7/
doi.org/10.1371/journa…
Last week, the UK & US spent billions to lock up early access to 90 million and 100 million doses, respectively, of #COVID19 vaccine candidates 9/
EC advised its member states against purchasing through a WHO-sponsored collaborative initiative on #COVID19 vaccines that the EU itself had helped launch 10/
Vaccine nationalism isn't just morally & ethically reprehensible (although it is).
it is contrary to every country’s economic, strategic, and health interests & it will prolong #COVID19 pandemic 11/
it is contrary to every country’s economic, strategic, and health interests & it will prolong #COVID19 pandemic 11/
Vaccine allocation resembles the classic game theory problem known as “the prisoner’s dilemma”—and countries are acting like the proverbial prisoner
If all other vaccine-manufacturing countries are being
nationalists, no one has an incentive to buck the trend 12/
If all other vaccine-manufacturing countries are being
nationalists, no one has an incentive to buck the trend 12/
So how do you make a non-cooperate game cooperative?
Reciprocity.
13/
Reciprocity.
13/
Game theory makes clear that, even for the most selfish players, incentives for cooperation improve when the game is repeated and players can credibly threaten to retaliate 14/
politico.com/news/2020/07/2…
politico.com/news/2020/07/2…
#COVID19 vaccines wont be a one-off experience: multiple safe & effective vaccines are likely to emerge, each with different benefits
Deny access to your early vaccine, other countries might reciprocate by withholding the more effective vaccines they develop later 15/
Deny access to your early vaccine, other countries might reciprocate by withholding the more effective vaccines they develop later 15/
Today’s vaccine supply chains are also unavoidably global
Because the science has not settled on which vaccine will work best, it is impossible to fully anticipate and thus prepare for all the needed inputs 16/
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-c…
Because the science has not settled on which vaccine will work best, it is impossible to fully anticipate and thus prepare for all the needed inputs 16/
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-c…
Politicians lament their countries’ failures to produce vast supplies of everything as “dependency”
But when it comes to creating an enforceable #COVID19 vaccine sharing agreement, cross-border supply chains are a feature to be leveraged, not a bug 17/
But when it comes to creating an enforceable #COVID19 vaccine sharing agreement, cross-border supply chains are a feature to be leveraged, not a bug 17/
.@ChadBown & I propose a #COVID19 vaccine trade and investment agreement as the best means for harnessing these untapped incentives for cooperation and avoiding the tragedy of vaccine nationalism 18/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Which brings this overly long thread back to the Trump administration's airplane mask analogy 19/
When oxygen masks drop in a depressurizing plane, they drop at same time in every part of the plane b/c time is of the essence and because that is the best way to ensure the safety of all onboard.
The same is true of the global, equitable allocation of #COVID19 vaccines.
20/20
The same is true of the global, equitable allocation of #COVID19 vaccines.
20/20
