1/ In the week ending 7/25, North Carolina received 26,141 initial claims for regular #UnemploymentInsurance, down from 29,204 the week before. A year ago, the total number of initial claims was 3,105. #NCeconomy
2/ Additionally, North Carolina received 18,790 initial claims for the new Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program, which covers certain workers normally ineligible for unemployment insurance. The figure a week earlier was 19,821. (NC began accepting PUA claims on 4/24.)
3/ Last week, North Carolina received 308,295 continuing claims for regular #UnemploymentInsurance, along with 209,510 continuing claims for PUA. #NCeconomy
4/ Last week, too, North Carolina received 168,679 claims for the federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program (PEUC), which allows people who exhaust their regular benefits to claim up to 13 more weeks of benefits. A week prior, the number of claims was 144,716. #NCeconomy
5/ The # of PEUC claims in North Carolina has been climbing rapidly. This reflects the fact that NC caps max. benefit duration at 12 weeks, not 26 weeks as is done in most states. People here are exhausting their regular benefits, while those in other states still have benefits.
6/ North Carolina's short maximum benefit duration means that job losers in late March & April have exhausted or are about to exhaust their regular benefits. If NC set max. benefits at 26 weeks, as most states do and as NC did pre-2013, unemployed workers would be better off.
7/ This is not an accident. It is the predictable outcome of deliberate policy choices made by the @NCLeg back in 2013. It is a feature of the state system, not a bug. #ncpol propublica.org/article/how-no…
8/ According to @NCCommerce, North Carolina paid out $6.6 billion in #UnemploymentInsurance between 3/15 & 7/28. That includes $323 million in PUA. $197 million in PEUC, & $4.5 BILLION in Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) benefits, which top up checks by $600/week.
9/ Last week was the final one for which the PUC was payable. Absent congressional action, the average weekly benefit in NC will drop by 71%, falling to $244/week from $874/week. The collective loss would translate to $364 million/week. #NCeconomy tcf.org/content/commen…
10/ One proposal in Congress is to drop the PUC supplement to $200/week from $600/week. That action is estimated by @EconomicPolicy to reduce the number of jobs in North Carolina by 94,000 over the course of a year. #NCeconomy epi.org/blog/cutting-u…
11/ At the same time, the job market is unlikely to improve until the #COVID19 health crisis is controlled. All ending/cutting the PUC supplement does is slow economic growth and increase individual hardship, as @TheHerald_Sun has reported. heraldsun.com/news/coronavir…
12/ Now a word about the (highly questionable) claims that the PUC program is keeping unemployed workers from accepting jobs because they "make more" by not working...
13/ An unemployment insurance claimant who is recalled to work & refuses to go back typically becomes ineligible for ANY further benefits. There are some good cause exceptions tied COVID, but they are narrow & require the claimant to make a case. des.nc.gov/need-help/covi…
14/ And a claimant who refuses an offer of "suitable work" also typically becomes ineligible for any further benefits. Suitable work is based (partly) on the person's prior earnings & doesn't include the $600/week supplement. Again, there may be some COVID-related exceptions.
15/ More and more research contradicts the incentive argument. Nationally, research by @ernietedeschi
& others found that about 70% of the #unemploymentinsurance beneficiaries who returned to work in June were receiving insurance benefits that exceeded their prior wages.
& others found that about 70% of the #unemploymentinsurance beneficiaries who returned to work in June were receiving insurance benefits that exceeded their prior wages.
16/ Similarly, a new study by researchers at Yale University found that recipients of more generous #UnemploymentInsurance benefits were no less likely than others to return to work. #ExtendUI news.yale.edu/2020/07/27/yal…
17/ All of the arguments that assume that workers are choosing to sit at home as the result of the kinds of rational, dispassionate reasoning assumed in ECON 101 (and that few real humans engage in) completely ignore the fact that the US is in the midst of a global pandemic!
18/ To reiterate, this is not a "normal" recession. It is the result of deliberate choices to "freeze" the economy to protect public health. The goal of #UnemploymentInsurance currently is to help people pay their bills until a broad economic re-opening is possible. #NCeconomy
19/ Until then, all ending the supplemental benefits will do is exacerbate hardships. Recent @uscensusbureau data found that 43% of all adults in North Carolina live in a household that has experienced a loss of income since March. Another 30% anticipate losing income. #NCeconomy
20/ North Carolina still has not crushed its #COVID19 curve, which is why state & local governments have continued to restrict economic activities. Until conditions, improve economic activity will remain subdued & the prospects of returning to a job or finding one will be dim.
21/21 Eliminating PUC before conditions normalize only punishes working North Carolinian's for actions out of their control, increases hardship, removes spending power from the economy, reduces sales for businesses, & makes the recession that much worse. #SaveThe600 #ExtendUI
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