Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Jul 31 to Aug 06 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries and territories (20 of them detailed below) NEW!!! Risk maps for August
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
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2/21. Switzerland reported 192 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (2.25/100K pop), growth rate 0.4%. With 140-150 new cases/day for the next days, the country is flirting with the upper limit of its safety zone.
R-eff.=1.15
604 new tests/1M pop on July 28; 199 deaths/1M pop; CFR=4.9%

3/21. Italy reported 288 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (0.48/100,000 pop), daily growth rate 0.1%. With 240 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone. R-eff=1.02
927 new tests/1M pop on July 29; 582 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 14.2%

4/21. France reported 1,392 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (2.08/100,000 pop), daily growth rate 0.6%. With 1,000->1,200 new cases/d in the next days, the country is in its safety zone. R-eff=1.26
573 new tests/1M pop on July 25; 451 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 16.3%

5/21. Spain reported 2,031 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (4.33/100,000 pop), growth rate 0.8%. With 2,300 new cases/day forecast, the country is leaving its safety zone. However, mortality remains low.
R-eff=1.26
Tests not reported to OurWorldinData; 606 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 10.1%

6/21. Austria reported 164 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (1.85/100,000 pop), growth rate of 0.6%. With 130 new cases each day forecast in the next days, the country remains in its safety zone.
R-eff=1.05
1,043 new tests/1M pop on July 28; 81 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 3.4%

7/21. The United Kingdom reported 763 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (1.14/100,000 pop), growth rate 0.2%. With 500 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country is in its safety zone.
R-eff=0.84
1,924 new tests/1M pop on July 28; 690 deaths/1 M pop; CFR=15.2%

8/21. Turkey reported 942 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (1.2/100,000 pop), growth rate 0.4%. With 930 new cases/day forecast, the country is in its safety zone.
R-eff=1.01
1,099 new tests/1M pop on July 27; 69 deaths/1 M pop; CFR=2.5%

9/21. Israel reported 2,001 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (23/100,000 pop), growth rate 2.9%. With 1,900-2,000 new cases/day forecast, the country remains at high level of its epidemic activity.
R-eff=1.1
3,328 new tests/1M pop on July 22; 58 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 0.7%

10/21. Saudi Arabia reported 1,759 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (5.1/100,000 pop), growth rate 0.7%. With 1,900->1,600 new cases/d, the country is coming back slowly towards its safety zone.
R-eff=0.87
1,805 new tests/1M pop on July 29; 82 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 1%

11/21. Pakistan reported 1,114 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (0.5/100,000 pop), growth rate 0.4%. With 1,100->900 new cases/d, the country is the country is in its safety zone. R-eff=0.82
96 new tests/1M pop on July 28; 27 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 2.1%

12/21. India reported 52,123 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (3.8/100,000 pop), growth rate 3.2%. With 49,100->45,200 new cases/day forecast in the next days, the country sees high levels of its epidemic activ.
R-eff=1.1
296 new tests/1M pop on July 29; 26 deaths/1M pop; CFR=2.2%

13/21. South Africa reported 11,362 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (19/100,000 pop), growth rate 2.1%. With 9,200->7,300 new cases/day forecast, the country is plateauing at high level.
R-eff=0.87
479 new tests/1M pop on July 28; 128 deaths/1M pop; CFR=1.6%

14/21. Russia reported 5,475 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (3.8/100,000 pop), growth rate 0.7%. With 5,600 new cases/d, the country is the country is slowly landing to its safety zone.
R-eff=0.98
1,659 new tests/1M pop on July 28; 94 deaths/1M pop; CFR=1.6%

15/21. The USA reported 74,985 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (23/100,000 pop), growth rate 1.5%. 64,600->63,500 new cases/d, NEW!!! Risk map for Aug and details on

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1288389989949202432?s=20

R-eff=0.99
2,537 new tests/1M pop on July 29; 458 deaths/1M pop; CFR=3.4%

16/21. Canada reported 476 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (1.27/100,000 pop), growth rate 0.4%. With 4f80->465 new cases/d in next days, the country is in its safety zone.
R-eff=0.99
2,703 new tests/1M pop on July 27; 238 deaths/1M pop; CFR=7.7%

17/21. Mexico reported 5,752 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (4.5/100,000 pop), growth rate 1.6%. With 6,300 new cases/day in the next days, the country is plateauing at medium level of epidemic activity.
R-eff=0.96
72 new tests/1M pop on July 21; 356 deaths/1M pop; CFR=11.1%

18/21. Brazil reported 69,074 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (33/100,000 pop), growth rate 1.9%. With 47,000 new cases/day in the next days the country is plateauing at high level of epidemic activity.
R-eff.=1.07
Tests not reported to OurWorldinData; 427 deaths/1M pop; CFR=3.5%

19/21. Chile reported 1,775 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (9/100,000 pop), growth rate 0.6%. With 1,900 new cases/day in the next days, the country is plateauing at medium level of its epidemic activity.
R-eff=0.93
896 new tests/1M pop on July 29; 490 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 2.6%

20/21. Peru reported 5,678 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (17/100,000 pop), growth rate 1.3%. With 5,300 new cases/day in the next days, the country is plateauing at high level of its epidemic activity.
R-eff=1.13
145 new tests/1M pop on July 28; 579 deaths/1M pop; CFR= 4.7%

21/21. Australia reported 278 new #COVID19 cases on July 30 (1.1/100,000 pop), growth rate 2.5%. With 380 new cases/day forecast, the country is facing a winter wave, remaining in its safety zone.
R-eff=1.03
1,764 new tests/1M pop on July 28; 7 deaths/1M pop; CFR=1.1%

22/21 - Since Germany did not report to @ECDC_EU on July 30, any forecast cannot be reliable until three consecutive days of reporting; Austria will be analyzed and presented in the meantime.