Detailed Summary of Chennai/TN 3rd wave Covid Analysis, thread 1/14:
Overall Active cases in Chennai had reached its peak on Jan 19th, and started down trending there on, as the recovery rate is now higher than the daily new cases.
Below chart showing the rate of daily recovery is now greater than the rate of daily new cases, showing the cases have peaked in Chennai. 2/14
Test positive rate in Chennai drops below 25% while rest of Tamilnadu is increasing trend shown in the chart below, there is always a lag of few weeks between Chennai and rest of TN as seen in 2nd wave also. 3/14
US Hospitalization trend showing, Omicron wave now has higher hospitalization than its earlier Delta wave, due to the increased actual load of cases than earlier wave. 1/4
Thread 1/11 - Tamilnadu all 37 districts complete trend analysis with active cases, new cases, 10 days growth rate.
Increasing trend - 19 districts
Decreasing trend - 18 districts
Growth rate % more than 100% - 2 districts
70% - 3
50% - 8
30% - 9
20% - 3
10% - 4
<10% - 8
2/11 1) Tiruppur Active cases 17628 new 1697 growth 118% - Increasing trend 2) Virudhunagar Active 8187 new 519 (decreasing) growth 114% - Increasing 3) Namakkal Active cases 6281 new 897 growth 97% - Increasing 4) Erode Active cases 14400 new cases 1743 growth76% -Increasing
3/11 5) Thiruvannamalai Active 7833 new 686 growth 71% -Increasing trend 6) Kallakurichi Active 4138 new 347 growth 63% -Increasing 7) Pudukottai Active 3993 new 343 growth 63% -Increasing 8) Thiruvarur Active 5860 new 563 growth 62% -Decreasing
Chennai Test positive rate all time high 23.8% today crossed 20% forecasted by model last week. It could cross 25% in 3-4 day. Forecasting model shows TN would cross 1 Lakh active cases in 5 days, Chennai 40K in a week. Public support critical at this moment #StopTheSpread 1/8
Comparing Chennai Wave 1 and Wave 2.
Test positive rate is now all time high 23.8% crossed last year peak of 21% took 45 days to overtake last year peak TPR, and it took 30 days to cross daily new case of last year peak 2393. The curve is still parabolic. 3/8 #COVIDSecondWave