Thread by @AliHMokdad

What is the status of the #COVID19 pandemic in the US? Follow me if interested to know what @IHME_UW is projecting and why. 1/20
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…

.@IHME_UW now projects 295,011 #COVID19 deaths by Dec 1, this is an increase of about 64,000 from our latest projection of 230,822 for Nov 1st, this increase is of 20K by Nov 1st and 44K due to extending our forecast to Dec 1st. 2/20

If 95% of the people in the US were to wear masks when leaving their homes, that total number would decrease to 228,271 deaths, more than 66,000 lives would be saved. 3/20

As of today when, thus far, 158,000 have died, IHME is projecting approximately more 137,000 deaths. With masks we can save 49% of the projected deaths (66,000 lives). 4/20

Masks and other protective measures against transmission of the virus are essential to staying #COVID19 free, but people’s inconsistent use of those measures is a serious problem. 5/20

We’re seeing a rollercoaster as people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase. When infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures which leads to more infections and the deadly cycle starts over again. 6/20

We see now fewer transmissions of #COVID19 in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas, but deaths are rising and will continue to rise for the next week or two. 7/20

The drop in infections appears to be driven by the combination of local mandates for mask use, bar and restaurant closures, and more responsible behavior by the public. 8/20

The public’s behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths. Such efforts to act more cautiously and responsibly will be an important aspect to control #COVID19 throughout the coming months and into next year. 9/20

Several states are seeing increases in # transmission (CO, ID, KS, KY, MI, MO, OH, OK, OR and VA). These states may experience increasing cases for several weeks and then may see a response toward more responsible behavior. 10/20

Since July 15, several states have added mask mandates. @IHME_UW statistical analysis suggests that mandates with no penalties increase mask wearing by 8 percentage points. But mandates with penalties increase mask wearing by 15 percentage points. 11/20

These efforts, along with media coverage and public information efforts by state and local health agencies and others, have led to an increase in the US rate of mask wearing by about 5 percentage points since mid-July. 12/20

Mask-wearing increases have been larger in states with larger epidemics. Why? This should be the norm to save lives and the economy. 13/20

.@IHME_UW model assumes that states will reimpose a series of mandates, including non-essential business closures and stay-at-home orders, when the daily death rate reaches 8 per million. 14/20

This threshold is based on data regarding when states and/or communities imposed mandates in March and April, and implies that many states will have to reimpose mandates. 15/20

.@IHME_UW model suggests mandates will be imposed:
•Aug: AZ, FL, MI, and SC
•Sept: GA and TX
•Oct: CO, KS, LA, MO, NV, NC, OR, and WA
•Nov: AL, AR, CA, IA, NM, OK, UT, and WI. 16/20

However, if mask use is increased to 95%, the re-imposition of stricter mandates could be delayed 6 to 8 weeks on average. 17/20

The model also assumes that 50% of school districts in each state will opt for online instruction only for the 2020–2021 school year. 18/20

As data emerge on actual school patterns, we will incorporate them into our future revisions of forecasts. 19/20

Given mask wearing, the likely restrictions on after-school activities, and the potential for some parents to avoid engaging in school-related functions, our estimated impact of school openings may be overly pessimistic. 20/20