Thread by @jseldin

NEW: "Efforts to reduce extremism in the #Philippines do not appear to have made a substantial difference" per acting @DoD_IG Sean O'Donnell in new report on Operation Pacific Eagle–Philippines

#ISIS-#EastAsia, "other violent extremist groups in the #Philippines that either coordinate with or share members w/ISIS, have remained about the same size & strength for the last few years" per @DoD_IG

"...little change in the capabilities, size, financing, & operations"

#Philippine armed forces "continues to conduct counterterrorism operations that keep #ISIS-EA from spreading, & continues to rely on US-provided intelligence, air assets, & other support to conduct counterterrorism operations" per new @DoD_IG report

"We have seen little progress in improving the economic, social, & political conditions" in southern #Philippines "where separatist groups and extremist groups have existed for decades" per new @DoD_IG report

Indications #ISIS-#Philippines taking advantage of #COVID19 - @DoD_IG notes April 17 ambush vs Philippine military on island of #Jolo, killing 12 soldier, wounding 13

Also, discovery of #ISIS cell in #Manila in June - "This incident appears to be significant" per the report

.@INDOPACOM "had previously reported to the DoD OIG that #ISIS-EA operated almost exclusively in the country’s southern provinces and activity near the capital was extremely rare"

#ISIS-#Philippines seeing less surveillance due to #COVID19

"COVID-19 restrictions, coupled w/force rotations, negatively impacted the amount of US intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance (ISR) support" per @DoD_IG, citing US Special Operations Command–Pacific

Interesting: @INDOPACOM "assessed that #ISIS-Core may never publicly acknowledge a new ISIS-EA leader due to the length of time since the death of ISIS-EA’s first and only recognized leader, Isnilon Hapilon, in 2017" per @DoD_IG

"International ISIS affiliates regard Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan, an #ASG [Abu Sayyaf Group] faction leader, as the de facto leader of #ISIS-EA in the #Philippines" per @DoD_IG, citing @DefenseIntel

Per @DefenseIntel assessment, #ISIS-#Philippines has 300-500 members "divided among several factions" - including #ASG, the #Maute Group, #AnsarKhalifah & others, per @DoD_IG report

#ISIS-East Asia big picture? "While ISIS affiliates are now active in the #Philippines, #Malaysia & #Indonesia, ISIS has not been successful in expanding ISIS-EA’s presence into a functional trans-Southeast Asian movement" @DefenseIntel tells @DoD_IG

#ISIS-#Philippines getting help from few #foreignfighters - "The DIA estimated that there are probably fewer than 40 active foreign fighters supporting ISIS-EA in the Philippines, and that most of these are from #Indonesia and, to a lesser extent, #Malaysia" per @DoD_IG