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1. Seven more thoughts about the #Israel- #UAE agreement brokered by the U.S.:
A) The timing was undoubtedly tied to the approaching U.S. elections set for Nov. 2020...
2.• #POTUS is searching for an achievement to present to the public before the elections (and perhaps also a legacy)
• PM #Netanyahu understood that #annexation was a dangerous move that carried both great costs and a potential expiration date for U.S. recognition...
3.• the UAE is concerned about a future Democratic administration in Washington leaving them to fend for themselves against Iran, Turkey, and Qatar.
4.B. Whatever the reasons, this is a correct and important step which advances Israeli interests in two ways: 1) peace in the region, 2) preventing the damages that would have been caused by unilateral annexation...
5.The groundbreaking announcement is important but the practical test of translating words into deeds is ahead of us– a process of reaching agreement on the details and arenas of cooperation...
6. Trust between the two sides will be a necessary precondition for the success of this process
7. C. The different versions regarding annexation (Trump in English – “off the table”, Netanyahu in Hebrew – “just a delay”) could cool off this warming relationship. It is possible that Netanyahu’s speech yesterday will disrupt the process...
8.That said, while Netanyahu has no qualms about breaking coalition promises to Blue and White, he will find that breaking promises to the USG is a lot more complicated.
9. D. In the UAE there is a great deal of admiration for Israel’s technological innovation, but it is important to remember that Abu Dhabi seeks to acquire very sophisticated weapons from the U.S...
10. It is important to ensure that such a process will include Israel’s MoD, MFA, and the IDF if it will result in the reduction of Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge or QME.
11.E.Among those who welcome the agreement and are considering their next steps are Bahrain and Oman, with whom Israel has also maintained quiet relationships for many years...
12.KSA remains quiet for the time-being, but Riyadh certainly acquiesced to this step and is likely waiting to gauge the reactions from the Arab world and international community.
13.F.This agreement certainly upends the conditionality of the Arab Peace Initiative, which was “first peace with the Palestinians, and then normalization.”...
14.That equation was not productive, as evident from the fact that it did not yield agreements between Israel and the Palestinians. That said, there is *still* an expectation among Arab states for Israeli-Palestinian progress...
15.The UAE-Israel agreement expands the potential regional contribution to such progress.
16.G.The agreement highlights that some of the regional states, despite some popular sympathy for the Palestinians and their distress, are tired of having their own agendas hijacked by Palestinian rejectionism...
17.The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the center of the regional focus, even if it is an essential matter for both Israelis and Palestinians. The Palestinian veto power over Israel’s relationship with the Arab world has suffered a major blow.

-End-
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