@SepsisUK @Prof_NT @profshanecrotty @SetteLab @ljiresearch @ScienceMagazine @CellCellPress Assuming that the lower than expected seroprevalence levels mean that the epidemic is still in its early stages is a mistake. I've been studying the pandemic since March (using analytical modelling, for example - happy to discuss). The very natural flow of the curves for the 1/n
@SepsisUK @Prof_NT @profshanecrotty @SetteLab @ljiresearch @ScienceMagazine @CellCellPress 2/n high fatality locations (all now experiencing very little trouble) is imo significant evidence, as are the similar fatality rates in those locations - notably a whole order of magnitude or more lower than we were told to expect. Deaths have trailed off in those locations.
@SepsisUK @Prof_NT @profshanecrotty @SetteLab @ljiresearch @ScienceMagazine @CellCellPress 3/n And all of this is the case in spite of the different measures taken in different countries.
As to the lower than expected seroprevalence results, the correct interpretation is not that reality is wrong and our original hypotheses are still valid (as many seem to believe).
As to the lower than expected seroprevalence results, the correct interpretation is not that reality is wrong and our original hypotheses are still valid (as many seem to believe).
@SepsisUK @Prof_NT @profshanecrotty @SetteLab @ljiresearch @ScienceMagazine @CellCellPress 4/n It is that our hypotheses were obviously incomplete and must be updated.
What is causing lower than expected seroprevalence? Various concepts have been put forward and are being studied: pre-existing immunity; T cells; variation in susceptibility; perhaps something else.
What is causing lower than expected seroprevalence? Various concepts have been put forward and are being studied: pre-existing immunity; T cells; variation in susceptibility; perhaps something else.
@SepsisUK @Prof_NT @profshanecrotty @SetteLab @ljiresearch @ScienceMagazine @CellCellPress 5/n But here is what I believe to be a key point for where we are right now:
We do not need to know the exact inner workings of the mechanism(s) in order to reach meaningful conclusions and make progress.
We do not need to know the exact inner workings of the mechanism(s) in order to reach meaningful conclusions and make progress.
@SepsisUK @Prof_NT @profshanecrotty @SetteLab @ljiresearch @ScienceMagazine @CellCellPress 6/n The virus appears to burn out sooner and at a far lower total fatality rate than initially feared and it does so in a manner that is logical and can be explained and modelled well. That's what matters.
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