Thread by @RuminatorDan

#TEXAS #SARSCoV2 analysis, by modelling.
Model implements lockdown as a reduction in transmission rate, with a single application & lifting. Growth appears to have been slowed, but then continues. There was also a change in reporting method on 27 July (see note under plots) 1/n

2/n All this inevitably increases complexity/ assumptions/ error. Important, therefore, to bear in mind that there is a higher degree of uncertainty attached to these results, which may be updated as more data emerge.

3/n #TEXAS has some similariy to #FLORIDA, as seen here:

https://twitter.com/RuminatorDan/status/1286656013840654337?s=20

4/n Both #TEXAS and #FLORIDA data are noticeably different to the higher fatality populous states, whose data peaked some time ago, Important to note though that the PFR's are comparable in magnitude, albeit with some variation (particularly NY).

https://twitter.com/RuminatorDan/status/1283785917057073152?s=19

5/n Note: This modelling is an analytical tool & not assumption-based predictive type. Minimise assumptions & complexity. Let reality lead model, not vice versa. Model is compartmental, with additions & mods. Data are used to test the hypotheses modelled & find parameter values.

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