Rem Korteweg Profile picture
Aug 21, 2020 13 tweets 7 min read Read on X
For @AIGemea #GlobalTradeSeries 2020 I had the pleasure of talking to @ignaciobercero & @elvirefabry abt the EU’s trade strategy amid US-Chinese tensions, Covid19, & how the EU can avoid the lure of protectionism & build domestic support for trade.
Key points below.

THREAD

/1
In response to Covid: “reshoring is unlikely to go very far in the EU”, said Ignacio.

EU too dependent on exports & it’s difficult to localize value chains. But there will be more talk abt strategic stockpiles, diversification of value chains (e.g w Africa) and subsidies.

/2
Ignacio also offered 3 scenarios the EU shd prepare for in light of US-Chinese trade tensions:

1) decoupling,
2) exclusionary trade alliances, tho no decoupling
3) a push for WTO reform.

The EU prefers option 3, obvs.

/3
But what should the EU do?
Ignacio:
-Engage, engage, engage w the WTO
-Build alliances with like-minded countries
-Deliver on bilateral FTAs
-Promote regulatory cooperation & don’t rely too much on the Brussels effect (h/t @anubradford).

...

/4
Digital and climate are areas where the EU could lead the way, said Elvire and Ignacio.

En plus:

-Develop WTO-compatible trade defense instruments, such as:
oReciprocity in public procurement
oStrengthening investment screening

/5
On US & Chinese trade assertiveness on trade:

The EU will have to manage the tension between its desire to promote open, rules-based multilateral trade, and the need to protect its interests.

EU needs strong trade defense instruments, but it also needs to back WTO reform.

/6
“WTO reform is not just about a level playing field with China. But also about meeting SDGs.” The EU should push for stronger trade rules on sustainability.

And as Elvire mentions, the window of opportunity of the “Brussels effect” may not last forever.

/7
And so the EU should move to update global trade rules now.

Aside from the WTO route, the Franco-Dutch non-paper on #sustainability & #trade is a way to leverage EU market power to promote sustainability goals.

@SigridKaag
@JBLemoyne

/8
Domestic politics play a role in this too. Publics see sustainability and trade as incompatible.

Parliaments are sceptical abt trade liberalisaton: see NL & #CETA, FR & #TTIP.

The Franco-Dutch paper is a welcome response.

/9
@EmmanuelMacron wants a “European trade policy that protects without protectionism”.

This applies sustainability, but also to digital trade and fair taxation.

Key element is that the EU and national govts should make the public case for trade better.

/10
Ignacio: “50% of #TTIP time was spent on explaining to publics.”

These public discussions need to happen early on. Continuous engagement is necessary, not just when an FTA has been negotiated. And it’s not just a matter for the Commission, but also for the member-states.

/11
Ultimately, Q for @DGtrade and MS is "Can Europe offer a Third Way on trade betw the US and China?"

Is the EU dependent on what Washington and Beijing do, or can the EU be the shaper of its trade destiny, with global rules and norms being protected? That's the challenge.

/12
So much more in this rich conversation with @ignaciobercero and @elvirefabry. A great backgrounder for the EU's #tradepolicyreview

Do have a listen:

aig.co.uk/util/insight-p…

@WeyandSabine
@rupertschlegelm
@achrafboualiD66
@PhilHoganEU

/end

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More from @remkorteweg

May 16
We have a new Dutch 🇳🇱 coalition agreement!
Here are some highlights with an international/ EU dimension:

Defence

- Continued military, political & financial support for #Ukraine
- Legally enshrine 2% defence spending
- Support for NL & European defence industry

/1
Migration

- NL will seek opt-out for (parts of) European asylum/migration policy, and will discuss setting up mini-Schengen’s in times of crisis

- NL will work with EU members to externalise migration policy to 3rd countries

/2
Migration (cont'd)

- NL will seek limits to freedom of movement for new EU members (i.e. same thing that happened in 2004)

- Various measures to dissuade migration, including fewer international students in Bachelors programmes, except technical studies

/3
Read 9 tweets
Apr 20
What does this mess teach us?

1) EU's timing was totally off, at least if it wanted a positive response frm London. Perhaps BXL's timing had more to do w VDL extending a hand to the UK at the end of her term. In any case it had little to do with political realities in London
/1
This suggests either VDL came up with the idea herself, or she was poorly advised by @PedroSerranoEU's team in London (which I don’t believe as they are highly competent)

Is there another option?

/2
@PedroSerranoEU .@anandMenon1 suggests here that the Commission wanted to pre-empt bilateral efforts by individual member-states

Plausible. Tho I haven’t heard many Europeans talk about bilateral deals with the UK on visas and youth mobility (aside from the French)
/3
theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
Read 9 tweets
Aug 25, 2022
This piece by @AllisterHeath is quite something.

Almost like he's applying to be Liz Truss' communications director.

A couple of quotes (because, you know, paywall...)

/1


telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/2…
1. Brexit hasn't been properly "done":

"As a result of the staggering implementation failures of the past six years, we have so far borne the costs of leaving the EU - the majority of which were the result of a choice by vindictive European protectionists...

/2
"...rather than the necessary outcome of leaving - while only enjoying a small fraction of the possible benefits."

Interesting perspective: trade barriers r blamed on 'European protectionists' instead of the logical outcome of leaving an internal market. But OK.

On continue

/3
Read 11 tweets
Aug 22, 2022
I just finished re-reading the #Iliad

Or rather, I read @stephenfry’s highly enjoyable version “Troy”

Here are a couple of points with some relevance to today’s war in #Ukraine

A short 🧵(with some classical art)

/1 Image
Who is to blame for the war, and at what point did it become inevitable?

Was it the Trojan abduction of Helen, the judgement of Paris, the lottery Odysseus organised, Paris’ and Antimachus' undermining of the Greek ultimatum?...

/2 Image
Or was it the challenge Troy presented to Agamemnon’s hegemony as “king of men”....
... or the Greek pursuit of Troy’s spoils?

In the case of Russia vs Ukraine, we also see multiple reasons being debated, some more realistic than others.

(Did someone say 'Mearsheimer'?)

/3
Read 14 tweets
Apr 18, 2022
If the West doesn’t want to get directly involved in Ukraine, it has two options:

-Arm Ukraine
-Use economic tools of coercion (sanctions)

We are doing the first. But the second remains tricky.

Some thoughts on economic sanctions.

A thread. 🧵

/1
If you are serious about using sanctions as a tool, you also accept harming your own economy.

Imposing sanctions ALWAYS means striking a balance between the amount of economic pain you are willing to absorb versus the amount of economic pain you can inflict on the other.

/2
Examples.

Personal sanctions are relatively painless; their impact is also limited.

Prohibiting sales of luxury goods is bad for oligarchs and bad for LVMH, but probably won’t lead to a change in behaviour either.

/3
Read 19 tweets
Mar 2, 2021
We hebben de #Verkiezingen2021 programma's van de 13 grootste partijen doorgelicht op de buitenland standpunten. Dit is het resultaat.

Verwarrend? Valt wel mee: hoe groter en donkerder de bol, hoe meer ambitie op het onderwerp. (Leeg = geen info in het programma).

/1
Op 9 vraagstukken laten de programma's zich goed vergelijken:

1. meer EU?
2. uitbreiding EU?
3. Europese economische onafhankelijkheid?
4. handelsverdragen?
5. arbeidsmigratie?
6. OS-budget?
7. band met VS/ NAVO?
8. Europese defensiesamenwerking?
9. Defensie budget?

/2
Ook hebben we gekeken naar de standpunten op de top-3 internationale ontwikkelingen die de Nederlander zorgen baart:

- migratiedruk aan de Europese grenzen
- China
- klimaat

Die komen hier uit:

clingendael.org/publication/ne…

/3
Read 10 tweets

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