Thread by @sfiscience

New piece at @aeonmag by SFI's @C4COMPUTATION & @MelMitchell1 ⚡

https://twitter.com/C4COMPUTATION/status/1296806626041556995

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "Simple cause-effect reasoning, to which the human mind can default, is not a good policy tool. Instead of attempting to narrowly forecast and control outcomes, we need to design systems that are robust and adaptable enough to weather a wide range of possible futures."

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "All human societies are collective & coupled. Collective, meaning our combined behaviour gives rise to society-wide effects. Coupled, in that our perceptions & behaviour depend on the perceptions & behaviour of others & on the social & economic structures we collectively build."

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "Transitions to orderly states such as schooling in fish can be caused, paradoxically, by randomness, or ‘noise’ feeding back on itself. A misalignment among the fish causes further misalignment, eventually inducing a transition to schooling."

(Image Credit: Unsplash)

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "[When] a metric is introduced as a proxy for ability...the metric becomes a target to be gamed, and ceases to be an objective measure. This is known as Goodhart’s Law, summarised by the adage: ‘The worst thing that can happen to you is to meet your targets.’"

(Image: Unsplash)

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "An inability to predict the future doesn’t preclude the possibility of security & quality of life. Nature is full of collective, coupled systems with nonlinearity & nonstationarity. We should look to the way biological systems cope, adapt & even thrive under such conditions."

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "Fiascos happen when we [assume] that the past contains the best information about the future. Instead...we might take inspiration from complex systems in nature and design processes that foster adaptability and robustness for a range of scenarios."

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "A study of a captive monkey society found that a small rise in agitation set off a cascade of aggression. In this group powerful individuals policed conflict. By increasing/decreasing their frequency of intervention [they] could be tuning how far the aggression cascades travel."

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "When the world is moderately or very noisy–filled with random, uninformative events–sensitivity to perturbations is dangerous. But it’s useful when a strategic shift is warranted or when the environment is fundamentally changing & old tactics simply won’t do."

(Image: Unsplash)

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "Copying and observation can facilitate individual learning, but tends to reduce the independence & diversity that’s valuable for the group as a whole. A commonly cited example is the so-called herd mentality of traders who, in seeing others sell, panic & sell their own shares."

@aeonmag @C4COMPUTATION @MelMitchell1 "In thinking through how to design aggregation algorithms that optimise for collective intelligence, ethical issues concerning privacy and fairness present themselves."

SFI's @C4Computation & @MelMitchell1 in their new piece at @aeonmag:
aeon.co/essays/complex…