A summary of @IHME latest @ #COVID19 projections in United States of America 1/17
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
.@IHME_UW is now projecting 310,000 cumulative deaths by Dec 1st, an increase of about 15,000 from the previous forecast on Aug 6. As of today we have lost 175,000 lives, we could lose approximately 137,000 more. 2/17 
Increasing mask use in the US to 95% through measures such as state and/or federal mandates with penalties and/or a concerted public information campaign would save 69,000 lives by Dec 1st. 3/17
.@IHME_UW expects the US daily death rate will drop very slowly in Sept and then rise to nearly 2,000 per day by Dec 1st. Without the reimposition of mandates in select states, the daily death rate could be even higher by Dec 1st. 4/17
The large epidemics in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California have peaked or stabilized. Overall for the US, national cases have been declining since late July, while deaths have remained steady at around 1,000 per day. 5/17
These projections assume that several states will reimpose mandates when they reach 8 deaths per million per day. 6/17
However, if mask use is increased to 95%, the re-imposition of stricter mandates could be delayed 6 to 8 weeks on average. Masks will save lives and the economy. 7/17
At this time #covid19 is the 3rd leading cause of death in the US in 2020. In fact, it is now the second cause of death on a weekly assuming uniform deaths of other causes. 8/17
A few states had a mean effective R above 1 on 8/7: PA, MN, IN, KY and WV. Meaning changes in individual behavior will reduce transmission. Let’s stay vigilant. 9/17
Mask use is holding steady at around 55% since late July. It is above the national average in CA, AZ, TX, FL, AC, VI and most of the Northeastern states. Please do your part. 10/17
Mobility has decreased compared to January’s level, but some states are almost back to the original levels. Fortunately, mobility is usually higher in summer than January (our baseline) so the reduction could be larger. 11/17
We are improving our percent of #COVID19 infections detected due to scaled up testing, but delays in results are still a major concern as they limit the ability to trace, test, and isolate. 12/17
