Thread by @MacroPoloChina

20 years after China's WTO accession, many have declared China a "winner" & the US rustbelt a "loser" of global trade. But what about the economic impact within China? Have all regions gained equally? Our Summer Associate Jessica Redmond explores the data: macropolo.org/analysis/china…

1/ The project tracked regional trade & FDI patterns from 1993-2019, and found that since WTO accession, the coastal provinces of Zhejiang & Jiangsu emerge as clear “winners,” and Heilongjiang, Liaoning, & Jilin provinces (Northeast rustbelt) as “losers:" macropolo.org/analysis/china…

2/ Although still far below the level of the east coast, the central & western regions such as Guangxi & Chongqing saw relatively large gains in trade after 2010.

Down south, despite always being a leading trade hub, Guangdong has seen a relative fall in trade:

3/ Given the uneven distributions of trade & FDI, have the costs of trade also been concentrated?

The project examines distributional impacts across several indicators:

- regional rural-urban inequality
- GDP per capita growth
- the rate of urbanization. macropolo.org/analysis/china…

4/ Based on these measures, the project finds that there is little evidence of an uneven distribution of costs.

This does not mean costs were not incurred, but does seem to imply that China adjusted rapidly so the costs are relatively dispersed. macropolo.org/analysis/china…

5/ What might explain the muted localized impact from trade within China?

We hypothesize 2 factors: China’s labor market flexibility & the Chinese government's mitigation of impacts, such as subsidies & massive infrastructure projects.

Read the research: macropolo.org/analysis/china…