1/China has a new “trinity” of econ/finance committees under the Party’s aegis. Two are old and one is new, but they all have the word “central” in their titles and sound kinda the same. So what’s the difference and which one really matters? We unpack all this in this thread. 2/First, the CFEC. Helmed by General Secretary Xi, it’s the OG commission that’s been around since 1980s. When it convenes, it sets the big picture and ideological direction on the economy. What happens here gets enshrined in Party documents, like Xi’s 2015 supply-side reforms.

1/With #Shanghai out of lockdown & COVID cases far lower than the April peak, is the Chinese #economy out of the woods? Not really. Any rebound in 3Q will be illusory as the underlying economy remains weak. @hzsong makes the case in his macro outlook: macropolo.org/analysis/3q202… 2/For one, consumption remains weak. It is sensitive to even modest lockdowns like those in #Beijing, and these smaller-scale lockdowns will likely be repeated across the country.

1/If China had a Camp David, it’d probably be Beidaihe, a summer retreat 3 hours from Beijing where political wheeling and dealing happens. Now that we’re officially into summer, it’s time for a thread on Beidaihe’s historical import and whether it still matters today. 2/Tons of attention is focused on Beidaihe, as it marks the final sprint of China’s quinquennial “election” cycle. Key personnel decisions and the timing of the 20th Party Congress will likely be made in a year where roughly 60% turnover of the Central Committee is expected.

1/ From the team that brought you the #BRITastingMenu in 2018 and #USChinaat40 in 2019, we’re recounting Deng Xiaoping’s historic Southern Tour from exactly 30 years ago. COVID has thrown a wrench in our food outing, but we’ve still got our annual #ChineseNewYear thread. 2/ A bit of background: Deng spent the 80s liberalizing China’s economy and stabilizing relations with the United States. Here he is visiting a Texas rodeo in 1979.

💡NEW ANALYSIS: As China maps out its next five-year plan during the Plenum, here's what we are watching:

Dual circulation (with a different interpretation);
Inequality;
Unemployment target;
Deleveraging & Property Tax.

Read the analysis: macropolo.org/beijing-formal… 1/ You've probably heard of "dual circulation." It has been widely interpreted as an inward shift, but we argue it's mainly about repackaging existing reforms to achieve organic growth - which will naturally make China’s economy more attractive & open. macropolo.org/beijing-formal…

🌲🌲What will be some trends in energy and climate policy in China over the next five years?

Here are our base case predictions. macropolo.org/analysis/china… 1/ Will China fulfill the goal set out by Xi Jinping to achieve peak emissions before 2030?

As China kicks off its 5th Plenum this week, read our in-depth forecast of Xi Jinping's political plan for China in the next five years. macropolo.org/analysis/forec… 1/ In 2025, Xi Jinping will remain General Secretary of the CCP, Chair of the Central Military Commission, and President of the PRC.

He will likely emerge the strongest he has ever been after the 20th Party Congress in 2022. macropolo.org/analysis/china…

20 years after China's WTO accession, many have declared China a "winner" & the US rustbelt a "loser" of global trade. But what about the economic impact within China? Have all regions gained equally? Our Summer Associate Jessica Redmond explores the data: macropolo.org/analysis/china… 1/ The project tracked regional trade & FDI patterns from 1993-2019, and found that since WTO accession, the coastal provinces of Zhejiang & Jiangsu emerge as clear “winners,” and Heilongjiang, Liaoning, & Jilin provinces (Northeast rustbelt) as “losers:" macropolo.org/analysis/china…

As #covid19 becomes a global pandemic, how do countries manage economies & withstand the impact?

In this new analysis, economist @hzsong assesses the effectiveness of China’s economic policies during #covid19 & offers some recommendations.

Thread below: macropolo.org/coronavirus-ec… 1/ We argue that in the case of a pandemic, the return to normalcy hinges on a healthy demand. That means people have the confidence to consume.

The key to policy effectiveness, then, is to prevent business from bankruptcy or laying off workers. macropolo.org/coronavirus-ec…

THREAD. Once a controversial policy, “Made in China 2025” has virtually disappeared in Chinese media. When did it happen & why?

Our summer associate @eliotchen97 sifted through 2,975 media reports, & visualized MIC2025 coverage over the last 5 years: macropolo.org/analysis/made-… @eliotchen97 1/ By reconstructing the sequence of events that led to the outcome on both the US & China sides, this media analysis attempts to quantify and explore the correlation between American elite perceptions & whether they affected China’s responses to MIC2025. macropolo.org/analysis/made-…

1/ THREAD. The US talent pool is leading the AI race, but much of that talent aren’t, in fact, made in the USA.

To gauge where AI talent in the US stands globally, let’s take a look at where the world’s top AI scientists are from: macropolo.org/us-china-ai-ra… 2/ AI talent in America ≠ American AI talent.

Roughly 60% of the world’s top AI scientists work in the US, but more than half of that talent pool are highly educated immigrants. Hover over our chart to break down the numbers: macropolo.org/us-china-ai-ra…

Over the 40 years of formal US-China relations, few companies better illuminate the complex layers of this bilateral relationship than @Boeing.

@Neilthomas123 traces the story of Boeing and China, from the Cold War to the Trade War. Follow this thread: macropolo.org/boeing-us-chin… 1/ Did you know the very first engineer @Boeing hired was Chinese?

In 1916, Chinese-born, MIT-trained Wong Tsu helped William Boeing build the Model-C.

macropolo.org/boeing-us-chin…