Thread by @AliHMokdad

@IHME_UW projects that the number of cumulative deaths globally expected by January 1 is 2.8 million; this is 1.9 million deaths from now until the end of the year. We expect daily global deaths to reach nearly 30,000 a day in December. 1/15
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…

If a herd immunity strategy is pursued – namely no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1, then the death toll could increase to 4 million compared to the reference scenario. This would be 1.2 million more deaths from now to the end of the year. 2/15

Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the world. It would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2.0 million, or 770,000 lives saved, a 27% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 3/15

Reported daily cases grew from mid-May to the beginning of August and have since declined slightly to an average of under 250,000 a day. 4/15

Daily deaths peaked mid-April at around 7,500 a day, declined to around 4,500 a day in June, and then increased to 6,000 a day in the first two weeks of August. 5/15

Since then, daily deaths have declined to just over 5,500 a day. The contrasting trends in daily cases and daily deaths reflects the scale-up of testing in many regions of the world. 6/15

COVID-19 is the fifth leading cause of death in the world this week with 27% of global COVID-19 deaths are below age 60. 7/15

Effective R is above 1 in select US states and Canadian provinces; in Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina; and in parts of Spain, France, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus, Egypt, Indonesia, and multiple states in India. 8/15

The cumulative percentage of the population infected is over 20% in Ecuador, Peru, multiple states of Brazil, and several states in Mexico. 9/15

Globally, less than 1 infection in 10 has been detected through testing. 10/15

Countries still maintaining more than three social distancing mandates are concentrated in Central America, South America, and select countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Only one mandate is in place many US states and parts of Europe. 11/15
healthdata.org/covid/estimati…

Global mobility dropped to a low of 50% below pre-COVID-19 baseline in late March and early April and increased steadily to 20% below baseline in late June. 12/15

Since that date, global mobility has remained relatively constant around 20% below baseline. Reductions greater than 40% are seen in several countries in Latin America, and in India. 13/ 15

Global mask use has been stable at around 60% since mid-April. High reported levels of mask use are seen in all of Latin America, southern Africa, southern Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, with the exceptions of Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia. 14/15

Global testing per capita has risen steadily from very low levels in March to over 50 per 100,000. Rates range from less than 10 per 100,000 in sub-Saharan Africa to over 350 per 100,000 in some US states and parts of Europe. 15/15