Thread by @AliHMokdad

.@IHME_UW now projects 410,451 #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1st, this is about 224,000 deaths from now until the end of the year. These are not numbers or statistics but family member, friends, and loved ones. 1/14
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…

Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the US, 95% mask use would decrease the death toll to 288,000. This is 122,000 lives saved, a 54% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year. 2/14

If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000. This would be 210,000 more deaths than our reference scenario. 3/14

.@IHME_UW expects the daily death rate in the US to reach nearly 3000 a day in December due to seasonality and declining vigilance of the public. 4/14

Reported cases peaked in the end of July at around 70,000 cases per day and has subsequently declined to around 45,000 cases per day. 5/14

Given that the current lag between death rates and case rates appears to have lengthened to more than 2 weeks, deaths have only started to decline after the middle of August and are now averaging around 850 per day. 6/14

.@IHME_UW data shows that #COVID19 remains the second leading cause of death in the nation. 7/14

Effective R is above 1 in 10 states: ID, UT, KS, OK, AR, AL, VA, WV, IL and IA. Increasing transmission in these states, is less than the decline in more populous states such as TX, FL, CA contributing to the national decline in cases. 8/14

.@IHME_UW estimates that 10% or more of the population in 8 states has been infected with #COVID19: Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts. 9/14

The death rate is over 4 per million per day in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina. 10/14

National mobility levels continued to increase slowly in the last week. With increases in mobility seen in states such as California, New York, New Jersey, Nevada and Arizona. 11/14

Mask use continues to decline from a peak in early August. Declines are notable throughout the Midwest. This trend is coupled with an increase in cases in some states such as Illinois and Iowa. 12/14

Likely reflecting the declining number of individuals presenting with symptoms, national testing rates continue to decline slowly from a peak in early August. 13/14

.@IHME_UW projections assume that several states will reach 8 deaths per million per day before Jan 1st and will re-impose mandates for 6 weeks. 14/14