Thread: I watched almost 8 hours of 3 more debates on #TigrayElection2020 #Tigrayvotes. As promised, I will cram my observation of debates 2, 3,and 4.
Debate 2 : Economic policy and investment
Debate 3: Rural & Urban Development
Debate 4: Education & Health policy. 1/n
Debate 2 : Economic policy and investment
Debate 3: Rural & Urban Development
Debate 4: Education & Health policy. 1/n
Assimba: wants social democracy with free markets, emphasized need for peace with neighboring countries [#Eritrea], regions, and the federal government. Cleaning bureaucracy, building better airport & rail were their priorites. They were attacked by TIP & TPLF. 2/n
Sawt: empahsized they too were social democrats. They attacked TPLF for not building Tigray-centric patriotic & nationalist Investors. They also were the ONLY party that want land to be privatized in urbanizing areas while the state keeps on owning rural land. 3/n
Sawt lamented the existence of 3000 schools that are unwalled sheds & the loss of MIT to the federal government. They advocated the return of health & education policy back to the states. They also said that they are for at least an Iraq-kurds' style of "loose federation." 4/n
Baytona flexed on building investors that are sufficiently nationalistic Tigrayans. It probably had the longest list of economic institutions & programs it wanted to build. They called for cultural revolution on idea of wealth, i.e. "other Jews" version instead of Jesus'. 5/n
Baytons revealed that their eventual goal after confederacy is Independence. They want seperation of party and state and critisized TPLF' agricultural growth as still not good enough to transform the peasant into a sufficient farmer, much less industrialization. 6/n
Baytona's economic model is Developmental Assembly/Congress. It was derided by Independence party & TPLF as a dishonest framing of developmental state model. Baytona also claimed Social democracy does not work in Africa as evidenced by South Africa. 7/n
Baytona does not believe in privatization of land. It wants to change curriculum to "smell like Tigrayan, not Shewan." It wants to resuscitate Tigray inheritances, resources, & knowledge including Ge'ez language to transform Tigray into being "sim card of the horn region." 8/n
TPLF, as an incumbent was receiving most of the fire. However, it used its list of economic accomplishments through the Developmental state model to rebut them. It was framer of federal free market policy that allowed for government intervention to fill gaps. 9/n
TPLF also went on the offense against Social Democracy for having no base community or constituency in #Tigray and called new parties ኣብ ሰማይ ዘሎ ደበና to mean "untested" while it made robust defense of its anti-rent seeking stance. 10/n
TPLF also defended EFFORT conglomerate as fillers of investment gap through some of the beloved subsidaries like Sur construction who are renouned road builders in #Tigray. Liya Kassa & the only female debater gave & muscular defense of TPLF. 11/n
TPLF also confidently defended land policy given Africa's experiences that made farmers landless. They also bragged about how the speed of urbanization is highest in the horn region with urban economy potentially reaching >50% within 10 years. 12/n
TPLF was at its strongest with Education & Health. It bragged about its 4 universities and 45 technical schools. It also showcased its disease prevention policy and increase of health care workers from 600 to 16,000 and increase of life expectancy from 45 to 65. 13/n
TPLF's .@hgodefay defended even the credible attack about education focus having been on access instead of quality. He successfully used the line "You all are a product of our successful education policy." 14/n
There was a question about the Single payer-like Health insurance system in Tigray for not paying prescription drug cost. However, the head of the health bureau @hgodefay again addressed it with the fact that patients can get drugs for free if they can not afford it. 16/n
Tigray Independence Party (TIP/ውናት): was short on programs, but focused on a vision. They summarized everyones position as wanting to build state-led capitalism and aspiration to be like Israel, China, etc. They said Tigray can not do that while under #Ethiopia. 17/n
While everybody seemed to be somewhat lost in the details and listing of programs. TIP was so focused in dealing with new reality of Tigray without TPLF's supremacy at the federal level. They were the only ones that were not successfuly attacked. 19/n
In fact, TIP's attacks against TPLF for not having new policy that recognizes the status of 6% of #Ethiopia's population in the era of "Oro-Mara" was so sharp. The attacks of Mahari Yohannes whose father is a martyr of the 17 yrs armed struggle were impossible to defend. 20/n
TIP's Mahari lambasted TPLF for being paternalistic & not giving people of Tigray referendum about independence back in 1991. He also pointed out the federal arrangement has been tried and failed and it will not work. 21/n
Other than education & health policy (by statute), "All economic policy and structural policies are under federal jurisdiction by constitution." TIP kept on saying. There fore, none of Sawt, Baytona's, or TPLF visions can be implemented no matter how good they may be. 22/n
None of the parties seem immune to withstand TIP's attack. Sawt had empasized "loose federation & no Article 51, upto independence" position , but they had no answer to TIPs retort that they have no chance of having majority to amend the federal constitution with 38 votes. 23/n
Baytona's position of "confederacy with eventual Independence" was simply dismissed as disingenuous and unnecessary complication. TPLF also seemed stagnant, too patient, or in the wait-and-see game while TIP is in the lead & proactive in shaping the future. 24/n
Even Assimba (ADP) seemed to recognize and resign to the winds of how TIP was shaping the debate to begin their question with, "you all seem to think Independece is the way to go, ...." 25/n
Based on the debates, my take is that the election is between TIP & TPLF. However, I know from experience that field organizing on the ground matters. I am not sure who has the best ground game in all the Zones & Weredas of #Tigray. 26/n
Current actions by the federal government are likely to strengthen TIP more. However, I doubt it will bother TPLF. In the words of former TPLF fighter Gebrekidan Desta, TPLF is pleased that it has produced ሓዊ ሓዊ ዝጨንዉ መንእሰያት in the 3 parties. 27/n
It is also possible that people go with the tried & true, literally battle and wars-tested & hardened party TPLF in such uncertain times. Whatever the outcome, impact, or validity of the election might be, this was great excercise for people of #Tigray. Happy election Day! 28/28
