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Jeff Dorman, CFA Profile picture
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8 Sep, 17 tweets, 9 min read
Part II of Gnosis thread ($GNO) thread -- continued from here:
24/ @davidiach Gnosis borrowed $12.5mm to build a prediction market, which has finally come to market 3+ years later. Trading ICO's, making VC investments, & yield farming are well outside industry best practices & not what token holders expect.

25/ No different than a stock buyback @harrycanuck. If Gnosis believes that they can produce a strong token model they should be thrilled to tender at NAV. This also signals to the community that they plan to create real value flow for token holders.

26/ When two “huge supporters” have lost faith because of slow progress and lack of communication, it means that it is time to address this and improve.

27/ Gnosis' own COO even acknowledged that we are right (before it was deleted).
28/ Yes @nic__carter there is a case. Our goal is to extract value and move the ecosystem forward. Hopefully, it won't come to litigation.

29/ @Melt_Dem It may be standard now, but delivering a token & a minimum viable network should not be the standard in the future. We all need to hold each other accountable (plus they did not deliver what was laid out in the whitepaper anyway).

30/ Agreed @SamFeinberg_ Investors did not know how this worked at the time. While Gnosis' hopes of "decentralized ownership" failed as a result, they have had 3+ years to address and fix this, but have to date chosen not to. Time for a solution.

31/ We disagree with your approach @carlosdomingo. As someone trying to push the envelope on token structures yourself, you know that there is no precedent here. We should push the industry forward together.

32/ Thank you @MichaelNov_KV -- our goal is progress

33/ Thank you @mikealfred. Our goal is not only to be the best investors but to lead by example. We believe transparency, operational excellence, and fiduciary responsibility are critical to the success of any company in this space.

34/ @arjunblj thank you for highlighting this, but we don't believe this is "protocol politics". This is a centralized company that owes investors money, or needs to deliver value. We will fight for what is owed to us.

35/ No thx @connorking_

Goal is to hold companies accountable. Projects should have a fiduciary responsibility to token holders, or they should not have a token. Opportunistic investors help move asset classes forward - we're stewards of advancement.

36/ In closing -- we hope @gnosisPM and @koeppelmann will finally address these long-awaited, unaddressed issues. We thank, and encourage $GNO token holders for your thoughts and opinions, and we encourage you to keep the pressure on Gnosis until promises turn to action.
37/ Gnosis’ ETH balance sheet can be tracked here, and they have an additional $10mm in USD from selling ETH (subject to continuously large monthly cash burns).

GNO multisig two wallet: etherscan.io/address/0x851b…

GNO multisig three wallet: etherscan.io/address/0xce52…
38/ Gnosis gave one update (at a Messari conference AFTER we engaged them). @Gnosis - it is time for you to create a plan about how best to capture value through your token. This plan needs to be public for all token holders to provide input.

messari.io/article/gnosis…
39/ $GNO Token holders -- Our DMs are open if you’d like to discuss further.

Your token is worth ~2x (under our plan), and worth even more if it traded at NAV or above. Demand that @gnosisPM treat you with respect.

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More from @jdorman81

Jeff Dorman, CFA Profile picture
8 Sep
Recently @fintechfrank at @TheBlock__ uncovered a dispute between @gnosisPM & @arca. Here is our official response:

ar.ca/blog/understan…

Add’l thread including an overview of our concerns w/ $GNO & answers to many questions from the Gnosis community 👇
1/ We are long $GNO. We believe that @koeppelmann, @StefanDGeorge, and the rest of the @gnosisPM team are strong builders.

However, GNO trades well below its book value. This is something that should never happen in a high growth industry such as digital assets.
2/ The NAV of Gnosis’ treasury, currently worth $139 per $GNO token, is the absolute minimum GNO should ever trades. The floor has been set! Every $0.01 below this value is a direct message from token holders to Gnosis that they don't believe you can generate an ROI on that cash
Read 25 tweets
Jeff Dorman, CFA Profile picture
8 Apr
[Thread]: A collection of thoughts on crypto, stocks, fixed income... and why "not being bullish" doesn't mean you have to be bearish.

$BTC $SPY $JNK
1) Stocks are VERY expensive. From @CecchiniPeter at Cantor:

"The S&P 500 is +22.4% from 3/23 lows, pushing P/E multiples to 19.0x forward earnings (based on fresh downwardly revised earnings estimates). This is the same P/E level as on Feb 19, the all-time high for stocks."
2) IMO, those downwardly revised earnings estimates are still too high. But forward guidance from companies is most important now. 1Q earnings won't matter since most of the 1Q was pre-quarantine. The outlook for 2Q doesn't matter either since everyone knows it is horrific.
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Jeff Dorman, CFA Profile picture
7 Feb
1) Happy to see excitement back in the Ethereum community with $ETH ripping!

BUT, this is also precisely why $ETH is not an interesting investment for anyone outside of the die-hard ETH community. When $ETH rallies, so does everything else.
2) While Ethereum is far and away the leader in smart contract platforms, it still underperforms (or performs in line with) almost every other smart contract platform. Even those with little chance of success.
3) Further, if you look at just ERC-20s (or other tokens highly dependent on Ethereum's success), $ETH's 65% YTD gain is at best middle of the pack.
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Jeff Dorman, CFA Profile picture
11 Jul 19
1) This is a Pro $LEO / Con $ETH thread:

Now that I have your attention, before everyone flips out and sends angry responses picking me apart, this is purely about financial/investing engineering & not technology, morals, popularity or importance.
2) Disclaimer: @arca owns both ETH & LEO.

Disclaimer 2: I fully understand the difference between a protocol and a token, decentralization vs centralization, utility vs security. This argument is purely about risk/reward investing and relative value portfolio construction.
3) In terms of up/down capture, $LEO may be the best token ever created & $ETH may currently be one of the worst. What is up/down-capture? It measures beta: Up-capture measures how well your token does relative to the market's upside, and down-capture measures the opposite.
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Jeff Dorman, CFA Profile picture
2 Jul 19
It's time to stop waiting for an "alt season" - that lazy term needs to be retired. The crypto market is WAY more developed now than it was in 2017 or prior, and the notion that a rising tide will lift all boats should not, and most likely will not, happen.

1) A thread on why:
2) Disclosure: I mention specific tokens as examples to make my case, of which @arca holds positions in some. I recognize many will disagree with which tokens belong in which categories, and I respect your opinion. My point is about differentiation; not which token fits where.
3) As markets develop, the individual components of the market begin to separate into "Haves" and "Have Nots". "Haves" are those tokens that have delivered or have great promise; "Have Nots" are those where a majority of the world has flat out given up on due to lack of progress
Read 22 tweets
Jeff Dorman, CFA Profile picture
23 May 19
Part 2 of my IEO thread... for Part 1, start here:
4) Syndicate desks are in charge of allocating the security. They talk to investors before a deal prices, and try to gauge preliminary interest. They typically have half or more of the new issue spoken for before they even announce it publicly to reduce the risk of failure.
Clearly, in the case of Ocean Protocol, their first underwriter (CoinList) and second underwriter (Bittrex) didn't have a good pulse on market conditions OR hadn't earned investor trust like Binance has (thus far). This is why it was a disaster blog.oceanprotocol.com/what-happened-…
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