Thread by @gianlucac1

STOP THE BULLSHIT ON COVID19 3d

Please stop the BS like "we have to co-exist with Covid19"

WE ALL KNOW THIS. THE PROBLEM IS HOW

some proponents say
"let the virus infect the young, there is no harm, protect those at risk"

Ok Lets walk through numbers
1/n

we know that IFR is between 0.5% and 1%, although for people above 60years of age its kinda higher

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

So lets assume IFR above 65 is 10%

Every 100, 10 dies above 65

2/n

We also know from several studies that the so called "Recovered" patients are witnessing some chronic illness: myocarditis, myalgia, fatigue, brain issues, PTSD and so on.

Some studies say that after 2 months 90% of recovered have 1+ chronic issues jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…

3/n

some other say other worrying things bmj.com/content/370/bm…

or

sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/b…

4/n

Lets assume that only 10% of recovered patients develop long term issue

So the "HI strategy" proponents are saying mathematically
(ITALIAN DEMOGRAPHIC DATA)

1) Shield those above 65 aka 15mln people (25%)
2) The others can infect, no problem aka 50mln people (75%)

5/n

Lets kick-in HI treshold

At R0=3 HIT in Italy would be 67% in no overshooting

So if you "shield" (seal? bury?) 15mln people we have:

67% x 50mn (below 65y)= 35.5mln infected

of which some 3.5mn will become Chronic

Death below 65 would be some 100-150k (0.3% of infected)

6/n

NOW THERE ARE SOME ISSUES (besides ethics)

1) how you define risk: is 63y lower risk than 65y? is 50y with Ipertension lower risk than 65y no ipertension?
2) Economy: is our economy equipped for a "segregated by age"life?really?
How is it to have some 3mn chronic avg age 44?
7/n

3) havent even considered congestion effect in hospitals, concentration risk and so on

4) Topology: how do you plan to shield those above 65y: Build a wall over 3/4/5 regions, move everyone above 65y there and name it ITALY COCOON SECTION?
8/n

I could go on for more tweets

Or you can stop this fucking bullshit, wear a mask and keep circulation of Sars-Cov2 Low after reading this.

9/9
fin

@CrossWordsCW @ThManfredi

@ciro @mtizzoni @alexvespi @CT_Bergstrom

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…