Questions I get from young people:
1. Am I immune from this virus? -> No, you are likely to have mild symptoms, but this is a nasty virus & you could face a long recovery. You don't want to get COVID- you could have an underlying health issues you don't know about. (1/n)
2. Should I just get infected & get an 'immunity passport'? -> We still don't know how long immunity lasts, & there have been some instances of documented re-infection. We don't yet know if 2nd time will be asymptomatic re-infection or more severe & how rare/common it is. (2/n).
3. If only young people are getting COVID, then what's the problem? -> No country has been able to fully shield the elderly/vulnerable as they live with us & among us. Vulnerable young = hypertension, diabetes, asthma, overweight, cancer survivors, immuno-compromised. (3/n)
4. How should I make daily decisions? -> Look at local prevalence & testing. If #s are low, then fine to go to pubs/bars/gyms. If #s are high, then be more cautious for 1-2 weeks & avoid indoor settings & get outside. If everyone is more cautious, #s will come down. (4/n)
5. Can I still go to parties & have people stay overnight? -> Look at local guidance. The more contacts you have, the more likely you'll be asked to isolate (if they test positive). Try to keep track how many people you've been in close contact with. Quality > quantity. (5/n)

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More from @devisridhar

22 Jul
Latest alleged comments by Pompeo (US Sec of State) in the UK are blame-shifting- Trump administration rattled by upcoming 2020 Elections with its appalling COVID-19 response resulting in a high number of cases, deaths & unemployment. Are these attacks on WHO fair? (thread)
WHO was established in 1948 as the chief director and coordinator of international health work in the United Nations. It has 3 functions with outbreaks.
First, its International Health Regulations require countries to report outbreaks (China did on 30th Dec), share this info with the world (5th Jan) & it can raise the highest level of alarm-PHEIC (30th Jan). At that point up to countries to prepare (or not to prepare)
Read 6 tweets
8 Jul
I look at what’s happening in several U.S. states including my home state Florida; I look at Israel and Spain and Iran and...and I know that everyone wants the economy to go full steam ahead in the UK. But I fear we will be in another lockdown within months, if not weeks.
Why would the UK be any different? This is what I asked myself also on Feb & March when the UK stayed fully open while others moved in opposite direction. Eliminate the virus over the summer then open up safely. Otherwise enter winter & flu season in a dangerous halfway house.
I know the economy is suffering & jobs are being lost. I recognise the toll that lockdown has taken and I’m not ‘pro-lockdown’ at all. In fact my worry is about a second lockdown & how to avoid this happening. Lockdown/release cycles will destroy society & the economy.
Read 6 tweets
8 Jul
Donald Trump's withdrawal of U.S. from the WHO ignores the key role the agency plays in outbreak prevention & response. Not only for COVID, but also for polio, malaria, TB, plague, yellow fever, cholera, Zika virus, & neglected tropical diseases. (thread) bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-…
The WHO functions are technical, normative & convening. The International Health Regulations (within WHO) ensured China reported a novel pathogen on 30th December. Daily technical press briefings started with a Declaration of a PHEIC (highest alarm bell world has) on 30th Jan.
WHO sent an int'l mission to China in Feb to collect key data on how the virus spread, COVID profile & the policy response of the Chinese government. They shared these findings on 24th Feb with the world & based on this info, New Zealand changed from a flu plan to a SARS plan.
Read 7 tweets
7 Jul
Keep being asked why in 2018 I mentioned a jump of virus/bacteria from an animal to humans in China as biggest 'threat' to world & how global health experts knew how COVID would unfold in late Jan. No crystal ball. Just look at data, analyse it, study patterns. It's all there.
Same thing happening now across the world. Since Jan, our team has been studying carefully how different countries have handled COVID, their policies & decisions, & what governments did well & badly. Observational studies in real-time --> use this to see where things are heading.
In March, countries ignored China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea's experience & decided to take a gamble on their own path. I tried to warn then about this: dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
Read 5 tweets
4 Jul
Would be surprised to see case numbers stay low over next 2 weeks. Hearing of people renting party buses to escape Leicester lockdown & head to pubs outside, & same for Scottish people crossing border to get into pubs. Pubs/bars highest risk environment for virus to spread.
If entire UK was light yellow, I’d be more relaxed as little virus circulating esp if number in single digits. But people from yellow areas going into darker areas with community transmission into pubs/bars & returning home to yellow areas will set off chains of infections. Image
Bars/pubs are THE highest risk for virus to spread as US states like Texas and California have painfully learned. Repeating others’ mistakes instead of learning from them. Image
Read 4 tweets
3 Jul
Past 6 months have been strange. Today has been particularly bizarre. Who knows what next week will bring.
To end the week on a positive note, Scotland’s case numbers are continuing to fall, test/trace/isolate seems to be working, clusters rapidly identified & great to have restrictions eased especially for kids & families. Normality slowly coming back in a cautious & controlled way.
Graphs on daily new cases & testing positivity built by @Adriel_KH_Chen from public data: gov.scot/publications/c…
Read 4 tweets

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