Thread by @jpr007

@tortoiseanhare Maybe try a different approach

1. Let’s take your $200 per month

- although it sounds high

2. Let’s say they get 10% of all owners, for various reasons of geography and choice and competition and bundling

- and 10% makes for an easy number to multiply to higher percentages

@tortoiseanhare 4. Let’s say there are 1.4 million Teslas on the road by 2020 year end

Add :

+0.8 million in 2021 = 2.2 million

+1.2 million in 2022 = 3.4 million

+1.9 million in 2023 = 5.3 million

+3.0 million in 2024 = 8.3 million similar to your 8.4

+4.5 million in 2025 = 12.8 million

@tortoiseanhare 5. 12.8 million x 10% participation = 1.28 million x $200 premium per month = $256 million per month

6. $256 million x 12 = $3.072 billion per year

- valuation at 1.0x Price / Sales ratio = $3.1 billion

@tortoiseanhare 7. $3.072 billion x 10% pre-tax profit = $0.307 billion x 0.80 = $0.246 billion Net Income

- valuation at 10x Price / Earnings ratio = $2.5 billion

8. Let’s say 1,000 million shares outstanding in 2025

—> $2.50 value per share in 2025

@tortoiseanhare 9. Allow 15% discount rate to 2020

—> $1.24 value per share in 2020

10. ASSUMPTIONS - P/E MULTIPLE

- if you think the P/E Multiple should be 20x then you can double this valuation to $2.49 per share

@tortoiseanhare 11. ASSUMPTIONS - PARTICIPATION RATE

- if you think the Participation Rate will be 50% then you can 5x this valuation to $12.43 per share

12. So now we have a sense of the scale of the value using 2025 as the reference year

- additional years of vehicle production add to this

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