THE chart of the WE (1)

if we are heading for high inflation due to monetary policy, without economic growth, we should dig deeper on the $gold cycles of the 70ties.

and not, what most analysts are doing, expecting the same cycle behaviour of the 2001-2011 bull market
THE chart of the WE (2)

during the 2001-2011, we had clear +-6 month intermediate cycles. (@badcharts) showed it in a podcast 9 months ago. 3-5 monthly white candles followed by 1-3 red candles, repeating forever.

or 12-20 upweeks, 4-12 downweeks.
THE chart of the WE (3)

Now look at this. #gold trading behaviour during 1976-1980

4 years long, we NEVER exceeded 8 correction weeks.
that's massive.
don't get left behind guys😉

retweet this log chart.
THE chart of the WE (4)

For fun, also the linear view. You definitely didn't wanted to mis the last run.
okay i tagged wrong, my apologize.
Sir PK @badcharts1 i was referring to

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More from @TheLastDegree

23 Aug
Tradeplan/Bias: PM are hugely bullish, currently in consolidation/correction mode.

My main models are starting to 'line up'.

i have been sleepless last few days putting all variables into a tradeplan that covers different scenario's.
Any drop to $GDX 37-39 would cover my hedges. (all together)

i see a 90% probabilty we get further corrective action, only the path (direct, fast) or pennant (longer fustrating) is very troubled.

(2)
My preferred scenario would be a fast drop scenario, with a flat month after and a soft retest on lower volatility. That would align all methods.

Correction in price directly, correction in time after.
Metals could trade slightly lower, while miners find bottoms next 1-2 weeks
Read 8 tweets
20 Aug
on my next leveraged long (thread)

i will be focussing on #silver and #silver majors miners - going all-in with call options (no spreads, i need unlimited upside)

timeframe to get in: within 2-7 weeks
#silver just had an EW wave 3.

after this correction, we should get the most powerfull advance, a wave 5. These can take very long, as they subdivide in another 5 waves

conclusion: around 40% in SLV calls
next #silver targets will depend on this correction and can be set after we have a low in place (evolving dynamics)

if we take 21 (also retest of the 2016 highs) for now to work with, my targets are $42 to $55
Read 8 tweets
5 Aug
How to trade this #gold bull market the coming years.
(thread)

6month’s old bull, it’s KEY to look back if any assumptions into how to trade this $silver $gold bull market can be adjusted & improved, as we just have the 1st inning of a lifechanging event.
Some key takeaways. In April, I made the assumption volatility in the biggest monetary debasement since WOII would be the hardest thing to handle from a trade execution part:



Which makes option trading far less interesting than holding penny stocks.
So 1st big conclusion: we went 90% all-in on junior penny stocks, kept only 10% in options;

Juniors are lifetime options without timevalue.

Avoid majors and midtiers for maximum upside, BUT spread out to a lot of positions.

Results are extreme, yesterday another 9.27%
Read 8 tweets
15 Jul
Exit strategy (thread)
Only valid IF I get my expected explosive silver move to fibonacci targets 22.6 all the way to 26, in the next 2-4 weeks.
If not, I just sit.
(2) only for active investors as I expect the bull to continue for a very long time: sit is a perfect alternative .

I am only outlining what I do, don't ask me what you should do.
(3) I expect in miners a 20-33% correction and hope to catch half of that by trading.
Miners portfolio: I will raise cash by selling 23 of 71 positions.
Read 9 tweets
7 Jul
Hedging (thread). Some simple thoughts for hedging a mining portfolio.

1. In case i would need to exit on a cycle top, i need around 150 seconds for each position to sell, that would cost me at least 3 hours (70 positions)

2. Even a small 25 pick portfolio would take you 1h
3.For that reason i have a 100% junior portfolio, and another 10% add-on leveraged portfolio.

The leveraged part can be used both long & short, swapping takes 2minutes if your positions are ready in the watchlist.

For options i use IB, as i can bid on midprice.
4. Juniors trade less cyclical, but some do, mostly the Silver section and be aware min. 30% corrections are very normal

To hedge, i prefer 2 liquid instruments, with minimal spreads, so i use GDX and SLV put options.

i keep it very simple, only buying straight puts.
Read 10 tweets
3 Jul
Quick review of overal excecution. Early followers know my history in PM is an etf OPTION trader (SLV, GDX, GDXJ).

feb/mar, we noticed a large selection of microcaps could be te way to go from there.

studying showed the historic deep valuations

(1)
- microcaps are lifetime options = works in a violent volatile bull market IF your timing is SPOT ON

- provide more % with less stress

- Gold Volatility Index GVZ at extremes highs makes entering option positions expensive

(2)
Well most interesting fact today: the GV portfolio (65 miner stocks) is now outperforming the leveraged Option portfolio.

Rewarded for 800 hours of research now.
No ETF risk.
And more important, outpeforming GDXJ /SILJ as well every week, why the work otherwise.

(3)
Read 6 tweets

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