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ElectoralPolls.com Profile picture
@electoralpolls
Sep 12, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
4 new polls in some less oft polled states from the A+ rated NYT/Siena.

The numbers do show a tight race (NV % NH particularly). And Biden's chances in our model drop 2.4% though, down to 89.6%:

electoralpolls.com
New Hampshire is the surprise one for me. Much closer than recent polling showed and drops Biden's chance a fair amount in our model:

electoralpolls.com/new_hampshire

He goes from an 84% chance to win down to a 70% chance. Changing the state from Likely Biden to Lean Biden.
The worst number for Trump here is #Minnesota in my opinion. The polls before this showed Biden +6.2%. This is significantly better and bumps him up to +6.8%

electoralpolls.com/minnesota

He's now up to a 94% chance to win the state.
The #Nevada number is closer than one might think, but is actually very much in line with polling so far:

electoralpolls.com/nevada

Biden actually gains a little in our model, moving from a 66% chance to win up to a 70% chance. He's +4.8% in the polling average.
This #Wisconsin number is closer than other polls are showing and frankly much closer than I was expecting. There's so many polls from WI lately it doesn't effect the model much:

electoralpolls.com/wisconsin

But it does change the state from Safe Biden to Likely Biden.

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More from @electoralpolls

ElectoralPolls.com Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020
Several new southern state polls from Tyson Group (some are a bit old though):

Alabama:
Trump 48% (+4)
Biden 44%

Florida:
Trump 44%
Biden 46% (+2)

Louisiana:
Trump 48% (+6)
Biden 42%

Mississippi:
Trump 50% (+10)
Biden 40%

Texas:
Trump 44%
Biden 48% (+4)
The #Alabama number is the most surprising to me. It marks nearly a 24% swing toward the Democrats from the 2016 results:

electoralpolls.com/alabama

Still, no other polls have shown this close a race there so we'll see if anything else comes close.
The #Louisiana number is also very surprising. Trump won it by 20 points last time. There have been 3 polls there this year:

Trump +6
Trump +16.4
Trump +7

electoralpolls.com/louisiana

Trump's still the heavy favorite to win (93% chance), but he's only up 8% in the average.
Read 4 tweets
ElectoralPolls.com Profile picture
Sep 13, 2020
A new National @foxnewspoll (A-) poll with Biden +5 (2 points closer than last month).

A few tidbits in the cross-tabs:

- Biden's +9 with 65+ voters
- Trump's +9 with 45-64 voters
- Undecideds / 3rd party is at 3%
- Trump's gained 3 points in his favorability (Biden's gained 1)
- Trump's job approval is +4 since last month
- 48% plan to vote early
- 64% support mail-in ballots
- But 43% aren't confident they'll be counted accurately
- Only 30% think we'll know the winner on election night
- 62% are comfortable with the result even if it takes days
Concerned about:
- Crime - 64%
- Unemployment - 87%
- COVID - 83%

- 70% think COVID is only somewhat or not at all under control
- Biden leads Trump on every measure except the economy (Trump +5)
- Outlooks on the economy are the most positive since Jan
Read 4 tweets
ElectoralPolls.com Profile picture
Aug 10, 2020
Digging into the crosstabs on today's 2 national polls:

Georgetown Univ - Biden +13
RMG Research - Biden +8

Two things stick out to me:

1) 65+ voters swung wildly toward the Dems
2) 18-34 voters are still very undecided (and were a big reason Trump the won swing states in '16)
Voters 65+

Trump won they be 7% in '16

In the Georgetown poll Biden's winning them by 6%
In the RMG poll, he's winning them by 3%

So that's between a 10-13 point swing towards the Dems.

Is Coronavirus the reason?

Romney won this group by 12%, so I don't think it's '16 sexism
Voters 18-34

They're by far the most undecided group.

In the Georgetown poll, 11% of them are undecided (compared to about 6% for other groups).

In the RMG poll, 22% are undecided (compared to about 12% for other groups)
...
Read 4 tweets
ElectoralPolls.com Profile picture
Aug 1, 2020
We've made a few small tweaks to the model:

1) Weight polls with multiple numbers properly (likely vs registered voters, etc)
2) Increased the testing range in simulations (especially further out from the election)

The old model had Biden at a 96% chance to win, he's now at 92%
electoralpolls.com

For problem #1, it was something we hadn't dealt with originally that we wanted to fix.

For problem #2, we just decided this election is probably more unpredictable than past ones and wanted to account for that unpredictability more.
And we know, changing a model midway through an election isn't always proper (and we understand why).

But we wanted to match the moment a little better and allow for bigger election result swings as voting this year will likely be very different (and sure to have some issues).
Read 4 tweets
ElectoralPolls.com Profile picture
Jul 29, 2020
@ChangePolls put out their bi-weekly swing state polls. Today's are much tighter than their last few (not this tight since mid June).

Things tick toward Trump in all the states (except NC). A Biden drops a point to a 95% chance to win overall.

electoralpolls.com/polls/
#Arizona poll
Trump: 45
Biden: 47 (+2)

Lowers Biden's polling lead from +4.1% to +3.8%. His chance to win the state drops from 74% to 70%.

electoralpolls.com/arizona
#Florida poll
Trump: 45
Biden: 48 (+3)

electoralpolls.com/florida

Continues a slide in FL for Biden. He was +7.1% 2 days ago, now he's down to +5.6%.

His chance to win the state falls from 94% (2 days ago) to 90% now.
Read 7 tweets
ElectoralPolls.com Profile picture
Jul 23, 2020
A whole slew of polls from @sprystrategies out this afternoon. Most of them are quite interesting to say the least.

Some highlights:

Trump +4.2 in Michigan
Biden +1.6 in Iowa
Trump +0.7 in Pennsylvania
Biden +4.8 in Arizona

Biden's chances overall drop 1.2% to 92.4% overall. Image
By far the most outlier poll is Michigan (Trump +4.2). Before this Biden was up 7.7% in the Michigan polling average. This would be a 12.7% swing if it's right.

Biden's chances in Michigan drop from 92% to 85%

electoralpolls.com/michigan
The Pennsylvania number (Trump +0.7) also seems like an outlier. Biden was +7.4% in the PA average yesterday. This would mark a 8.4% swing to Trump.

electoralpolls.com/pennsylvania

Biden's chance are still at 94% though.

What do we think? Is this an outlier or finding hidden voters?
Read 9 tweets

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