16 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Are New Forms Coming?

In a word, the answer is maybe. I'll show you Biden's chart next, and you'll see he broke support and broke it strong. And, steep as Trump's resistance line is, he's chasing it hard right now. Interesting.
2) There are some of elements of Biden's drop that are quite concerning. When you break support, you only want to do it by a little, and then bounce right back up. It is certainly possible Biden will do that tomorrow. But, this drop really did surprise me.
3) Now, look at what I drew as a possible plummet line. These monsters are bad, bad news. Part of the definition of a plummet line is that it takes straight from your resistance line right one down through support, and if it really is a plummet line, it keeps on going.
4) Even worse, we have to now see the resistance line above as massively confirmed, and, at least for today, the support line is broken. Not to smithereens yet, that would take a few more days. Besides, this really could just be an aberration and Biden will bounce back fast.
5) All that said, if I'm a Biden advisor, I'm taking this very seriously. For these weeks we've had a steady, safe lead. We were in a nice flag formation, and could well hope to break the flag to the upside. Breaking a flag to the downside is very bad thing. What to do?
6) Again, I'm a Biden advisor, I say, we have a problem. Our loud mouths are Marxists, and we've played to them. Our true base are patriotic Americans, and are NOT represented by the far left. We can't break to the middle utterly, we'd lose the far left. But...
7) We can integrate strong, American traditional values with the values of the far left. That integration brings the two disparate parts of our party together, if it succeeds. So, I recommend soaring speeches. The theme I'd recommend is something like: Our Higher Nature.
8) Oh, oh! And I'd jettison Bring Back Better viciously. Biden does not get to out-Trump Trump. That can't work. Listen to the word "better." Better than what? Better than Trump did. Our very slogan honors Trump as having brought America back. Now, we'll do it better?
9) I'd stare the team down and say, Let Biden Be Biden! He can't be responding to Trump. A president has his own agenda, not merely a reaction that actually honors his opponent. Soaring speeches. The theme would have the subtext: In Biden's America...
10) There are times in a campaign when you have to admit your strategy is, if not completely off, then heading that way. You have to change course. And, whether I believe personally believe in Dornsife or not, I'd take their data very, very seriously anyway. Word to the wise.
11) I don't think Dornsife wants us to have good news for the Trump team, but this is looking pretty good right now. Trump loves nothing more than coming from behind. Imagine, a sitting president and still an underdog. What could be better than that?
12) We don't yet know that this is a surge line, that would take a few more days to affirm. If it is, it'll have to break above the already steep resistance line. We certainly cannot predict that right now. We really do have to wait and see.
13) One of the things I loved about Dornsife back in 2016 was how often their data went in the exact opposite direction of all the reporting, and that included FOX. At their best, Dornsife monitors the deep flows of support, resistance and change as it really occurs.
14) Once again, here we see the exact opposite of just about everything being reported by everyone. Yes, Dornsife has, I fear, contrived to place Trump far beneath Biden in their forecasts. Yet, look at the forms. Biden's broken support. Trump is chasing resistance.
15) Who in the media will tell you that? No one. So, if I was advising the Trump campaign, here's what I'd say. We're doing great. Don't believe the fake polls. I'd say, we've done a great job with fake news. Now, we MUST obliterate the entire polling strategy of the Democrats.
16) I'd advise, hit hard, harder, and harder still on FAKE POLLING. Add Fake Polling to Fake News, as the current enemy of the day. And I'd sustain that attack between now and November 4. I have to expand on this point. It is that important.
17) In 2020, Fake Polling has become the center strategy of the Democrats. If it weren't for Fake Polling, no one would believe that Biden was ahead. Being ahead in the polls is the fundamental, and utterly essential message they build upon. Without it, there is no strategy.
18) Clearly, if we read Dornsife with credulity, we're far behind Biden, but, we've begun to rise. What accounts for that rise? My answer is about all things else, law and order. I'm far from alone in this assessment. If I'm advising the Trump team, I'd turn to safety.
19) I'd do it two ways. Internal and external. I'd hit the rioting hard - and Trump already is, and I'd recognize that - but I'd hit it even harder. How so? I'd instantly build up the surrogate team, and get them everywhere, always sounding off about a safe America.
20) My second move would be - and again, Trump is already doing this! - to hit the COVID virus as the China Virus. No response at all to Woodward and their blah, blah, blah. I'd blow that off. Rather, China is an external enemy. And, they love seeing our cities burn.
21) As we give up safety in our cities, as protests loot and burn across our land, what do you think our enemies are seeing? They're seeing the end of American greatness. They're seeing an enemy ripe to be attacked. They are emboldened by every weakness we show.
22) Last, for now, I'd advise continued, but deepened and enhanced attack against Biden. I'd define Biden as corrupt. I'd be hitting on the Hunter Biden scandal every single day, relentlessly. I'd make Air Force 2, with both Biden's in it, the image to burn on America's mind.
23) At the same time, and this is to both camps, while I'd fight hard on either side, I'd be careful to find a core set of American principles that we all agree on. Yes, we fight, and we fight hard. We do. But under it all is a set of principles that define America Herself.
24) No matter how wrong I think this side is, or that side, this person, or that person, I'd work hard to find a set of principles that are unarguable, and dedicate myself to those. And, I'd have each side challenge the other to draw ever closer to those core principles.
25) The term for those principles, those core American principles, is: Sacred. I'd charge each team with the mission of being the better team to draw America closer to those. That's a competition worth joining, worth winning. I say, let the best American team win.
Thread ends at #25.

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20 Sep
20 Sep 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

True Or False - Insight Or Psyop

Before we tackle the data, this is my mental fortification tool, perfect espresso. No, not perfect, but pretty damned good. I do this every day, but today I thought I needed to share it with you, too. ImageImage
2) In case you're interested, perfect espresso must be deliciously drinkable, with no modification, that is, no sweeteners or frothy milk, etc. My roasting skills haven't risen that high yet, so I do sweeten my espresso with Splenda. One day I'll get there.
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19 Sep
19 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Calm Before The Storm - Or, The Plot Is About To Thicken

You can't look for any impact from Justice Ginsburg's death in today's data. It'll be 3 - 7 days, I imagine, before we see its impact emerge. What I see here is calm. ImageImage
2) You see above I opted to draw two charts over the same data from both campaigns, and including our Insignificant Difference Area. There are many stories here. The roiling currents beneath the calm surface are really there everywhere. There's one that jumps up at me.
3) On the first chart, I have to go with Trump's resistance line as the most threatening story, about to break above the surface...of the IDA's lower limit. If he doesn't, his numbers will have to fall toward support and that will mean a new formation to the downside.
Read 31 tweets
18 Sep
18 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Suspension Of Disbelief...Or...?

When you watch a movie or TV show, listen to a radio show, or read a good story, your mind does the funniest thing. It suspends disbelief. Same thing happens if a friend tells you a story.
2) You know you're not there. You know it is not actually happening right now in front of you. You know you're not participating or even actually observing. But, your mind places you as if a fly on the wall, or a ghost in the breeze, and you see and hear everything...as if real.
3) It's as if the whole thing is happening in real time. Yet it's not, it isn't even happening at all. Many times, it couldn't happen, no matter what. We call that form, fantasy. I bet you never thought of it, but political polling demands the exact same function of mind.
Read 36 tweets
17 Sep
17 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Drawing Near The Insignificant Difference Limits!

You can believe when I tell you, yes again, that I WANT DORNSIFE to be right. In my analyst mode, I truly do have a place that couldn't care less who wins or loses. Image
2) I don't draw upper and lower limit trend lines for the Insignificant Difference Area every day. I did today for this reason. Both campaigns are drawing nearer and nearer to it. My sad theory is that Dornsife may stop this, thumb on the scale of the data.
3) As I've outlined, I have many reasons for this fear. The main one though is this. If Biden remains always above, for the entire season, and Trump below, well, that's just hinky. (Honor to AG Barr for that term!) What's more, what if they do that, and then Trump wins? Not good.
Read 31 tweets
17 Sep
17 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

What? No data?

It's now 6:45 AM EST, and still no fresh data from Dornsife. Am I appalled or what? How do you get to claim the slightest scientific integrity yet now, for the 2nd time, miss your self-created deadline by hours?
2) I make mistakes. I get things wrong. I mess up. I do it all the time. I do it so often that I've learned way too well how to apologize, how to take full responsibilities for my many failures. I am, therefore, a very forgiving man. And I am loyal to my friends, also.
3) Loyalty to friends means, to me, in part, that you readily forgive their failings, exactly as you hope they will forgive your own. There is a story here. I have told it many times before. I'm going to tell it again, now. You'll see the reason why, soon, I promise.
Read 33 tweets
17 Sep
Data nerd, data addict that I am, I CRY FOWL. "Just after midnight" PST = 3:00 AM EST. It does NOT equal 6:20. Being over 3 hours late does NOT speak well. It indicates the need to massage data. No one forces anyone to set a deadline. You set it for yourself. Once set. Hit it. Image
In 2016, I discovered the problem of data covering the previous day, posted the next. Today is 17 September. At midnight PST (just after, to be loosely precise) Dornsife's data is supposed to be posted. It's now 6:34 and still no fresh data. What could be the cause of such lapse?
And this is the second time in a week, that hours, not minutes have been logged with no fresh data. But, let's get back to how confusing this can be. Dornsife may only publish 16 September's data on 17 September. That's why, when I publish my analyses, they have the latter date.
Read 4 tweets

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