Thread by @ThyConsigliori

17 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Drawing Near The Insignificant Difference Limits!

You can believe when I tell you, yes again, that I WANT DORNSIFE to be right. In my analyst mode, I truly do have a place that couldn't care less who wins or loses.

2) I don't draw upper and lower limit trend lines for the Insignificant Difference Area every day. I did today for this reason. Both campaigns are drawing nearer and nearer to it. My sad theory is that Dornsife may stop this, thumb on the scale of the data.

3) As I've outlined, I have many reasons for this fear. The main one though is this. If Biden remains always above, for the entire season, and Trump below, well, that's just hinky. (Honor to AG Barr for that term!) What's more, what if they do that, and then Trump wins? Not good.

4) No, it won't prove my sad theory if Biden's descent and Trump's recent rise both come to a screeching halt in coming days, but man, it sure will add confirmation. Please mind, confirmation does NOT = proof. And also, please note I do NOT require their inversion.

5) If, once they may hang out in the Insignificant Difference Area for a while, and then Biden goes back up and Trump back down, I will NOT hold that against them, at all. I just need to see that they're NOT managing it, only reporting it. There is yet another hand, though.

6) If Biden really wins, and Dornsife predicted it from day one, then I will eat crow, BIG TIME, for having doubted my good friends there. We don't know each other personally, but I do consider them friends anyway. Fair is fair, and right is right. If they call it, I'll fess up.

7) Here is today's Biden chart. Damn, I have to point out that his virtual halt on what looked like a possible plummet line, if continued, or reversed, may add a bit of confirmation to my sad theory. Honest, no more about that!

8) It is, however, be you for or against Biden, important to NOT overreact to these things. It's only one day's data and we have no idea what direction tomorrow's data will follow. That's part of the power of formations, when we have them. They provide logical limits, mostly...

9) Mostly? Yeah. A formation is just a guess, it has no true scientific basis. It is an interpretation. They help, but from my perspective, they help far more in forming strategy than as actual predictions. I believe that strategy must respond to both facts and interpretation.

10) Just one step further, the formations themselves are defined by drawn lines, which are artistic interpretations. The data points - if they're taken from honest and not skewed data - are indeed facts. Thus, facts + interpretative lines = technical formations.

11) All that covered, obviously I love my lines, and I love to interpret data. And that leads us back to fundamental analysis and the strategies we derive. So, the question for the Biden team is, why were we falling, and are we done yet, or not?

12) I say in a fall, it's always best to believe it, and respond. Not overreact, of course. But falls must be paid attention to. What's more, they should be believed, if if they're actually just random fluctuations. One can't really know. So, best to at least pretend it's real.

13) Here's what I offer. Your COVID strategy isn't working, in spite of how happy and brilliant you were with the Woodward book's revelations. Sadly for you, they're fading already. You won't win many more news cycles that way. I'm sorry. It was a great strategy though. Honest.

14) Here's the problem with that strategy though, as I see it. You sound - tone, now - you sound a bit gleeful over bad news. You've been guilty of that with the economy, too. And come on, you were SO trigger happy with the failed Impeachment. That was not good for you.

15) Don't be downcast. You can still really take this thing all the way home. You can. But you really do have to change course, I fear. Seriously. Let's go back to COVID. You're not making a logically sound case when you say that our terrible 200,000 deaths were caused by Trump.

16) For instance, you're not taking any responsibility at all for Cuomo's decision to send seniors with COVID back into their senior care facilities. And, you've got Cuomo saying terrible things about Trump right now, that Republicans can match up against his previous praise.

17) If you're listening, please. Just stop. Stop that right now. Pull all that stuff off the airwaves, and let's help Biden build a better strategy. And I'm telling you, it'll have to pass logical muster. You're insulting the intelligence of your voters. You can't win that way.

18) My idea would be to make Biden be almost always calm. Sure he can say bad things about Trump whenever he wishes, and he must. But, not over the top. Not driven by anger or hatred, or even spite. It cheapens him, and makes him look less than serious.

19) Here's the key for you. Listening? Sell me. Yes, me. Make me believe that if Biden wins, I'll still be okay. No, you won't get my vote. But yes, you will get my support in spite of my absolute MAGA dedication. Think about it. We'll talk more about this again, soon.

20) Here's Trump. Insignificant Difference Area...here we come? Yesterday was a huge spurt, one of the largest yet this season. Today's is much smaller, slowing down. You never know with surges how long they'll last. And, you must NEVER count on them!

21) As you've noticed, I'm quite ambivalent about the quality of this data, still. Here, I simply have to pretend it's solid. Giving me that, my next step is say, hey guys, let's get ready to hit resistance and bounce right back down. Sure, we may punch through. We'll see.

22) Now this is important. If this data is right, we'll never win while we're in this channel, and the support level is sheer death. We cannot let ourselves get comfortable in any case. This is NOT a winning channel. That means we're going to have to break out on the upside.

23) More, once we do, we're going to have to reinforce our new formation with a winning support line. You just can't ever count on resistance to bring you home, even that that's what we did last time in 2016. I'm not thinking we're going to repeat that in that way again.

24) Here's your homework. Read this article, and pretend it is 100% spot on right. You will NOT agree with it actually, and you probably shouldn't. But real winning means facing, and then slaying the dragon. It doesn't mean pretending he isn't there.

lmtonline.com/news/article/T…

25) Your question will be, how do completely reverse this, so that even our worst enemies will have to admit we nailed our mission? I'll offer just one tactic for your consideration, and we can work on this more later. Consider a:

Why-I'm-So-Proud-Of-My-President ad campaign.

26) You already did that at your Convention, and you rocked the virtual house with it. It was SO awesome! And great job to whoever came up with that! I'm saying, keep that going. If the numbers come in showing you're benefiting, do two such campaigns per week till the election.

27) If I were to be personally honored with a slot, I'd say something like: "Never before in my entire life have I felt the gratitude to my president that Donald J. Trump puts into my heart each and every day." If interviewed, I could go on and on and on.

28) Sadly for me, your intelligent ad creators would screen me out in a heartbeat. I'm not the right guy for the campaign. But, who am I to tell you? You guys really are so good at what you do. My point really is only an example. You can come up with scads more, of course.

29) I have to close out today's chat with this final point. Ask Trump. He knows what to do. Every time I see him on TV anymore, I just see him nailing the moment. The only advice I'd offer the Chief is this. Walk a bit more happy. Head up, high. Big smiles. That's it.

30) That's all for today, friends. If you're a Trump supporter, go read the article above, and get to work addressing it yourself. If your for Biden, I'm telling you, comfort is not your friend right now. Besides, these numbers may not be right. Think about it, seriously. Please.

Thread ends at #30.