Thread by @ThyConsigliori

19 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Calm Before The Storm - Or, The Plot Is About To Thicken

You can't look for any impact from Justice Ginsburg's death in today's data. It'll be 3 - 7 days, I imagine, before we see its impact emerge. What I see here is calm.

2) You see above I opted to draw two charts over the same data from both campaigns, and including our Insignificant Difference Area. There are many stories here. The roiling currents beneath the calm surface are really there everywhere. There's one that jumps up at me.

3) On the first chart, I have to go with Trump's resistance line as the most threatening story, about to break above the surface...of the IDA's lower limit. If he doesn't, his numbers will have to fall toward support and that will mean a new formation to the downside.

4) You have to remember, there are the numbers, just the numbers, and then, there is the presentation of the numbers. I keep pounding away on the fact that Dornsife's new presentation is highly suspicious. That matters over this steep resistance line of Trump's.

5) We'll talk more about the Insignificant Difference Area (IDA) below. But focus with me on what happens if Trump's formation breaks above that lower limit, and then stays there for a while or breaks on through to the other side, above the upper limit. What would that mean?

6) For one thing, it would make the egregious nature of Dornsife's new presentation format that much more important. An insignificant difference, too close to call, is NO CALL at all. It blows up the projection capability from their data.

7) Second, if the Trump data is in the IDA, then how meaningful can the Biden data be, no matter where it's at at the time? Besides, there's no way for Trump's rise to NOT pull Biden's numbers down, sooner or later also into the IDA. The math allows nothing else.

8) The second roiling current is this strange new, so massively confirmed, downward sloping Biden support line. I now it's dangerous to take tiny blips seriously from one day to the next, but a .13 drop is .26 worse than a .13 rise. (From 50.26 yesterday, to 50.13 today.)

9) The one thing about Biden's gentle, but so strongly confirmed descent right now, that makes it so explosive if it's predictive, is how once again the MSM touts Biden's ever strengthening lead in the polls. But we don't see that here at Dornsife. It feels very familiar.

10) But it's the second chart above that rocks my boat on these apparently still waters, maybe a bit of a gust of wind swooping in. In days past, it wasn't too difficult to draw a basic trend line, splitting the difference between support and resistance for each limit.

11) When I analyzed the data today, I found I just couldn't do that any more. As you can see I had to draw two X forms. There are many ways X forms can arise. For both limits' trends today, though, it was resistance overwhelming support. Go figure. September 6 - 8. What happened?

12) A slightly different life for Pasquale. Imagine me with a team of analysts, feeding their research and assessments up to me, the boss. The main soul I need is my partner in crime who focuses on fundamental analysis. He or she keeps all the news dates on my technical charts.

13) So, right now, Pasquale is yelling over, "Yo, Fundamental Person, what was going on between September 6 and 8, that might have shifted both our trend lines from support to resistance? What do you have for me?"

What a fun life that would be!

14) I suffered the same fantasy power (filling in for my real world deficiency) back in 2016. I'd be drawing my charts, see an X form shift, and scratch my head. What caused that? And why didn't I notice it then?

We go back to Dornsife again now.

15) Who remembers my story, that I keep sharing? Specifically, I had but one statistics course in college, yep, just 101 and that's it. I aced it, but I aced all my classes. Still, I did love it, and I did coach @KateScopelliti when she took it the next term. That was AWESOME!

16) So, when we get to something like an IDA, and then, I discover an X form shift for both upper and lower limits over a 3 day period, I'm going, "What are those statistics magicians over there up to?" How in the world do they even calculate this...thing...?

17) For all my fake humility, I do have a statistical Spidey Sense, and let me tell you, I do NOT like or approve of what I'm seeing here. Nope, not one little bit. I obviously can't prove it, but this smacks of data manipulation to my intuitive eye. There's some jig up, here.

18) Here's Biden's chart. I keep looking at this, and it finally hit me today, this is an almost perfect example of the famed Fedora Form! You know, that short brimmed hat favored by saucy fellows the world over? I'm kidding. I don't think there any such a form been named.

19) You can tell that this new, but so instantly well confirmed support line of Biden's has me spooked a bit. I don't like it when new lines sneak up on me, that I wasn't even watching before. Pesky critters like that irritate me. I mean, how long can this support line last?

20) There's no math on this chart indicating it might not be the real line defining Biden's run, all the way to November 3. And, it might even be his victory path, if Dornsife has honest data, here. Wouldn't that be something? He won not with a bang, but a whimper. Wow.

21) More likely though, downward slopes hang out for a while, gently, but the longer they go, the heavier the gravitational pull weighs down on them. Think of a long branch on a pine tree. The longer it grows, the more it slopes downward. This one looks like that to me.

22) And that might as well bring us to Trump's chart. Talk about a roiling current beneath the surface! look at the possible new support line bragging about itself there. And that's what threatens Biden's downward falling support, the most.

23) I confess, I got so excited about this undercurrent, that I had to start looking to see if I could find a new resistance line to have an under-the-surface new possible channel or flag. I almost found a couple, too! But then I realized I had stopped analyzing as painting, now.

24) I call it "painting" when I force what I want onto a chart, and stop actually listening honestly to what it's saying for itself. Who knows who Alan Dershowitz is? He's got a similar term. Singing is when a witness starts giving up everything he knows. Composing is different.

25) Composing is when the witness is now making up information that is completely false. Yes, analysts are able to do the same thing, virtually. We can see stuff inside the data that just isn't there. It's important to notice when the temptation grows. It's always there.

26) By the way, never believe anyone who claims to NOT be emotional about their analysis. That claim means they're either lying, or more likely just emotionally suppressed. The emotions are always there, and often they're the source of your best insights. But not always...

27) Ahem, getting back to the dry math of it all, if Trump has a new, emerging support line and if that support line builds an X form (which basically just means "crosses over") intersecting previous resistance, then every single thing on our charts goes up for grabs, right then.

28) So, as I said at the beginning today, get ready kids, things are about to get choppy up in here, and yes, you may want to buckle your seat belts as we're about to enter some heavy turbulence. And parents, if the oxygen masks drop down, be sure to put yours on first.

29) As a bit of a teaser, regarding my beloved BetweenTheLines.Vote, if things go well today, I'm going to have a big announcement coming, well, maybe later today! If not, I'll try not to talk about it in further embarrassment. In any case, do head over there and vote!

30) And most of all, shock your friends that disagree with you, by taking them there, too, and surreptitiously begin to have open conversation even over disagreements, without getting crazy angry at each other.

More to come friends, and be ready...

That's all for today, everybody, thread ends at #30.