Before we tackle the data, this is my mental fortification tool, perfect espresso. No, not perfect, but pretty damned good. I do this every day, but today I thought I needed to share it with you, too.
2) In case you're interested, perfect espresso must be deliciously drinkable, with no modification, that is, no sweeteners or frothy milk, etc. My roasting skills haven't risen that high yet, so I do sweeten my espresso with Splenda. One day I'll get there.
3) My machine is a stove top espresso maker called a Karmira. It generates the largest amount of delicious crema of any machine I've ever used. If you're into stove top machines, I don't think there's a better one out there.
4) Why does all that matter, relative to today's analysis? Over the past 5 years, identifying, and protecting my mind and heart against psyops - psychological operations - has become one of the more challenging disciplines I've had to study and learn.
5) In 2016, I had the honor and privilege of working with an incredible pioneer in America's military psyop branch, GEneral @paulvallely. He is the highest ranking Army officer to ever specialize in Psychological Operations. Here's the great gift General Vallely gave me.
6) He taught me that it is impossible to fully understand political warfare - and all politics is war - without a solid understanding of psychological warfare. And, he empowered me by recognizing my own innate ability to see the dynamics at play, naturally.
7) General Vallely guided me to the literature on topic, including some of his own key writings. And, in our many discussions, he shared with me that there is one, and only one sure protection against the otherwise inexorable impact of a psyop. And that is the truth.
8) Here's how it works. A psyop is really nothing other than a lie, but as opposed to one person lying to another, it is a powerful entity or group with resources, that expends some of those resources crafting and disseminating lies to the public. Indeed propaganda.
9) As I came to understand it, the line separating propaganda from psyop is a thin one, but observable. Propaganda alone tends to be more general in impact, without required a specific mission, or direct goal. Psyops do have clear missions, with specific targeted outcomes.
10) And there is no greater or more specific outcome than a Presidential or Congressional election in America. It is NOT a stretch, therefore, to include Saul Alinsky's work in the corpus of psyop literature, nor to see that from Clinton1 to Obama to Clinton2 we see its rise.
11) During this season so far, I have been very careful to NOT include within my Dornsife Poll any discussion of psyops. Obviously, today's the day that policy ends. And that's why I especially needed my espresso for mental fortification, today.
12) Let's look at the chart again. As I have point by point attacked all the changes in Dornsife's method this year, my fear has grown that this is NOT honest data we're seeing. But today's chart literally gave me chills. To explain that, we have to discuss emotions again.
13) The ultimate test of a psyop's success or failure is whether or not its lie can penetrate past people's intellectual fortifications based on strong logic, and embed itself underneath that barrier directly in the target audience's emotions sub- or unconsciously.
14) Remember how, in so many fairy tales, there comes a moment when the evil witch's spell is broken? A good deed, or better yet, the kiss of true love transforms the evil's power, turns it against the evil doer, and frees our hero or heroin, or best of all, both.
15) Consider, in psyops, the lie to be one side's long spear of attack. Consider the target audience's logical, truth seeking minds to be their defence. If that is penetrated, the only healing salve that can cure the target audience now poisoned, is the light of truth.
16) As I've frequently stated, I do not have the statistical chops to understand how something like an Insignificant Difference Area is calculated, let alone to explain how it might be manipulated. But my instinct tells me that today's chart shines light on that evil, somehow.
17) I've told the story many times. On October 15, 2016, I saw in my Dornsife chart, the exact moment that the Hollywood Access Psyop broke. Everyone was reporting that Trump's bid was finished, but I saw that he'd won, and called it that day.
18) Here's the key. I had been scared and depressed and upset for the entire week from Oct 7 when the Psyop was put in motion, and watching as closely as I was, I knew that that's what was happening. I also knew, I was unable to protect myself from its impact.
19) There was also absolutely zero question in my mind that this was the worst attack the Clinton2 campaign had to hit us with. The moment I saw that America did NOT buy into the attack, I knew that Trump's real momentum would carry us through to victory.
20) That's why I'm so addicted to data, and work so assiduously to keep my view on the most verifiable of facts. It is my mental bulwark against these psychological attacks. And that mechanism is what finally kicked into full motion, highest gear, this morning.
21) Look again at the chart with me. The power of the turn, from high peak of resistance, to beginning of a new, downward sloping support is just too sharp, on this chart. We drop Biden's peak on September 1, Trump's on Septembers 7. And focus on these dates.
22) My published analysis of the Hollywood Access Psyop's failure focused on the harshness and identifiable irrelevance to the election on the one hand, and the complete hypocrisy of Clinton2 by way of Clinton's far worse guilt. I lauded Steve Bannon for his genius move.
23) It was the 2nd debate, which immediately followed the release of the tapes. Banon used the front row seats he controlled to bring Clinton's accusers to face Clinton2. ONe of the greatest, and most genius moves in American political history. Honor to Steve. Great honor.
24) Now, look at the subtlety, the absolute inscrutability of turning '16's most accurate poll into one of the primary modes of attack in '20. Ah, but now we have to put Dornsife into context. The psyop this time is something I'll call:
4X FALSE POLLING
25) Where Fake News was the grand strategy in '16, it is False Polling that leads the way as grand strategy here in '20. It has extended ever since Biden was selected by the powers that be in the Democratic Party to be their nominee. From that moment, the strategy kicked in.
26) The chills that ran up and down my arms and deep within my eyes this morning were caused by seeing Dornsife as the coup de gras of the long, slow, extended psyop. It's worth pausing on that French term. It means stroke of grace. That's the moment of the death strike.
27) Our American phase, "put him out of his misery," is the closest equivalent. It obviously means that your enemy has been suffering after blow after blow of your debilitating attacks, and, in his misery, is better off with a fast, painless death, then by a long, torturous one.
28) It is a little remembered fact that in the days when knights wore long swords on their side and stiletto blades in their belt, that the stiletto was also called "the mercy." Used mercifully, it kills in a moment, no pain.
29) What I see in today's chart is Democratic leadership loading its torpedo bay, going live, and the submarine captain instructs, "Fire." Torpedo's away.
So...
30) I'm a bit sad, as this is the day I make my call against Dornsife final. I have now judged them actually false. You know I've been heading this way since August 19, the day they announced this season's opening and touted all their changes. 32 days later, I state my call.
31) As always, my calls are made in a right-or-wrong manner. By that I mean, if I discover later that my call was wrong, I publish the statement of my error, boldly. If wrong, I say so, the moment I come to understand I was. That's today's call:
2020 Dornsife is false.
32) I will still chart their data daily. I do not know which days, if any, I will further analyze. I'll make that choice day by day. But I will no longer put forward the weak theory of their potential honesty. They may be, of course. But I cannot deem them so for now, and won't.
33) Perhaps you can see the impact of my hardened heart in these two, virtually unanalyzed charts.
34) Let's finish up where we started out. I don't roast my coffee beans every day, but I do grind and draw as perfect an espresso as I can every day. It is tonic, nectar for my mind and soul. Each step of the process is a meditation.
35) I have been profoundly influence by the famed Japanese Tea Ceremony called Chanoyu. The Chinese invented the Tea Ceremony, but it was the Japanese who introduced it to America, and who perfected it to its highest form.
36) I have studied the literature, the written philosophy and practice guides of Chanoyu, but I've never practiced the art, myself. I simply apply what I've studied to my daily coffee practice, as well as I'm able.
37) We're told that the truth will set us free, and so it shall. However, we're also told something like, "The truth? You can't handle the truth!" That latter from Saint Jack of Nicholson. Neither statement is in contradiction to the other. Both are 100% true. Thus the challenge.
38) Here's a nod to all my Q following friends. I have come more and more to be angry every time I hear your movement referred to as a conspiracy theory, or worse, a disproved conspiracy theory. You are NOT a theory. You are people, and a reputable movement.
39) Your numbers are growing, as are the number of candidates who boldly claim participation within your movement. I say honor to you, great honor. You are fighting the fight for truth and light. Strive on, Q friends. I know that you too are lifting the heavy load.
40 Finally, to my Democratic friends, beware your leaders. Often, their purposes are not what they would have you believe. As I love you, I despise your leaders. And I reject their falsehood as such, without apology for that. I need the truth to set me free, and so do you.
Thread ends at #40.
But the quest for truth marches on.
And on.
Today’s roast is a bit lighter than usual, it it still has good oils extraction. We’ll see how she does in the brew. Exciting!
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The brilliant tweet below, by my friend @FloridaBoyMedia, solved a YUGE problem for me. Why did @realDonaldTrump support @kevinomccarthy for speaker? Until the tweet below, I could not square that circle. Now I can.
2) The simple fact is that McCArthy is a natural enemy of Trump's, and of the #MAGA Movement, exactly as Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell are. All of us sycophantic Trump supporters wanted him to be a temporary Speaker, himself. Alas.
3) Thing is, if we know nothing else about Trump, we know he does business with his enemies. Think of Kim Jong Un. No missile tests during Trump's administration. And how many since Let's Go Brandon? It ain't zero.
2) I was not in DC for the 6 January 2021 Rally. I wanted to go. Fiercely. It wounded my ego to NOT go. Allow me a martial arts term: Zanshin. It comes from the Samurai and means your sense of threat or danger. For the Samurai it was almost a mystical concept.
3) In Akira Kurosawa's great film The 7 Samurai (which was the basis of the Magnificent 7), there is a scene in which a Samurai being recruited and tested, refuses to walk past an open door, which was, in fact, hiding an attacker. He was the greatest recruit. That was Zanshin.
1/ I have now watched our podcast below. If you haven't seen it yet, find the time. It's worth it. I sure wish I could learn to make my eyes look at the camera instead of the person's face on screen. Alas.
2/ As to the coming thread, though, I walk away feeling some other ground needs to be covered. Try to stick tight if you can. Look at this list:
1) Doctrine 2) Strategy 3) Tactics 4) Execution
Why does it seem the other side has all four, but we only have the last two?
3/ I want you to try to answer that question for yourself, and my spoiler alert is for the next tweet, not this one. And by all means, please comment. Let me know what your thoughts are, please.
Can you say "getting into the weeds?" I don't imagine too many will care, but for some strange reason I've decided I want to know about the Rules Package. So, here's the best version of the current package I've yet found.
2) The PDF above is the one they call "The 55 Pages."
So, knowing I do not know this language, I decide to just start reading and here's a screenshot of the first thing I find.
3) Who knew? Who had any idea? the 118th Congress begins its own rules by adopting the rules from the 117th Congress. I'd never have imagined. Okay, a bit of searching - it does NOT pop right up - and, I found this:
General Flynn's voice is heard strong and clear. He pulls incredible audiences. His analysis and writings are very powerful as well. Here's his New Year's guidance!
2) We'll walk through his counsel in detail later in this thread (which may take a few days to complete). But let's cut straight to the chase. @elonmusk, can you give General Flynn his Twitter account back, please?
3) No, @elonmusk, there is not - to my knowledge - a major Twitter story behind the unhinged attacks that our government executed against General Flynn and his family. But, the simple fact of his purging from Twitter is, in its own right, an important story.
Analysis 4 - 31 December 2022 - Hammer & Scorecard
Do you follow @maryclairerose? If not, please do so right now! She will be our guide in today's work. She's one of our very best analyst/writers, period.
2) We'll dive into @maryclairerose's work in a moment. First, I have a bit of backstory to share. I met Marcy Claire in 2016. I'll never forget the call I got, shortly after we met, where Mary Claire explained the illegality of Obama's money drop to Iran. Who remembers that?
3) Mary Claire always combines brilliance with patriotic passion. Throw in far more than anyone's fair share of writing talent and you start to get the picture. As I recall it, none of her editors were willing to run with her scoop.