22 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis
Could It Be? Are We Poking The Giant In The Eye?
My plan, this morning, was to introduce my own polling data, imperfect as it is, but ready for publication. And then what happens? You have to read the fine print.
Could It Be? Are We Poking The Giant In The Eye?
My plan, this morning, was to introduce my own polling data, imperfect as it is, but ready for publication. And then what happens? You have to read the fine print.
2) Here's the key information:
"Since respondents are invited to respond every 14 days, the 7-day graphic was subject to a certain level of periodicity, since the sample on which the graph was based essentially repeats every other week...
"Since respondents are invited to respond every 14 days, the 7-day graphic was subject to a certain level of periodicity, since the sample on which the graph was based essentially repeats every other week...
3) "...Our goal for this graphic was to have it more nimbly reflect reactions to news events than it could if the full 14 day wave was included in each data point."
4) I say "key information." I should say, "key DISinformation." They couldn't give a rip about "periodicity." What they've really done is shrunk the Insignificant Difference Are from OVER 5% to UNDER 4%. This leads me to a vicious attack. You have to let me.
5) I propose they follow my chart work. Further, I propose they follow my analysis, and more, they have realized how vulnerable they've made themselves by all the changes they've made this year, compared to 2016, since I have pointed all this out.
6) I propose that the actual heat of this attention to their bald chicanery has made them realize a change must be made, now, and this is what they've done. They now offer BOTH a 14-day window AND a 7-day window. I decry that this is worth understanding.
7) I say again, the real game is in the Insignificant Difference Area. By shrinking it, in presenting their entire 14-day window, they give themselves additional buffer underneath Biden and above Trump. I'll show you both in the 4 screenshots below.
8) Here is today's 14-day Graph.
9) And here is today's 14-day Data shot. The easiest thing to note is the upper limit of the IDA number at 48.60.
10) Here is today's 7-day graph.
11) And last, here is the 7-day data, again, note the difference in the IDA at 49.08.
12) I apologize over how boring all this must be. I am, I confess, in a state of shocked amazement. I never dreamed of such a bald move by Dornsife. All I did was plug their numbers in this morning, and I instantly saw that VAST difference.
13) What you're witnessing is, at minimum, an outfit designed to find the truth, now tottering in its attempt to color the truth, if not to baldly lie with the data. They're obviously not good at the second goal, or they'd never make this change.
14) As to Dornsife, I have a long, arduous process now to complete, of creating an entire 2nd chart system to track BOTH their 14-day AND their initial 7-day numbers. What we've been tracking so far have been the 7-day numbers. The 14 is brand new. Alas.
15) I'll be working late tonight, and early tomorrow to get all that done. If there is something significant there, I'll end up posting about it tomorrow. If not...
I'll finally get to post about my own fledgling attempts at collecting my very own data, for you. Whew...
I'll finally get to post about my own fledgling attempts at collecting my very own data, for you. Whew...
Thread ends at #15.
And good riddance. Dornsife is really irritating me. But, they're still the big dog on the block, so, attention - CAREFUL ATTENTION - must be paid.
And good riddance. Dornsife is really irritating me. But, they're still the big dog on the block, so, attention - CAREFUL ATTENTION - must be paid.
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